San Shin

2004-08-26T16:51:00.000-07:00

Shameless Jeff-promotion: I've got a story about Scuba diving in today's Bellingham Herald. Check it out if you're so inclined.

2004-08-17T21:29:00.000-07:00

There can be only one ... or two at most: Many of you have no doubt taken a peek at the new home for my Mariner thoughts. A team blog makes more sense for me, given that interplay with a talented writer like Peter White will be fun, and that both of us are getting busier.

This blog will stay alive, though posting will be less Mariner, more politics and writing. In the meantime, check out Mariner Musings!

2004-08-17T19:43:00.000-07:00

Ichiro Is Everywhere!:

"Yeah, everybody's got a little bit of Elvis in 'em.
Everybody except one person.
The evil opposite of Elvis.
the Anti-Elvis."
--Mojo Nixon

If, as Mojo posits, we are all moving in perfect peace and harmony toward Elvisness -- as part of a process called ElvisLution -- then Ichiro is surely further along than most.

Musically, Nixon suggests that The King's doppelganger is Michael J. Fox, who reflected very little Elvisness in his role as Alex P. Keaton. After tonight's paean to Ichiro!, I asked myself: Self, who is the evil opposite of Ichiro?

Just then came the dulcet tones of Ron Fairly. "And there's strike three on Bloomquist, his second strikeout in as many at bats since he replaced Justin Leone."

Too perfect.

Follow me as I prove using undisputable scientific facts that Willie Bloomquist is, in fact, the evil opposite of Ichiro: the Anti-Ichiro.

TALE OF THE TAPE:

Bloomquist: bats right
Ichiro: bats left

Bloomquist: white
Ichiro: not

Bloomquist: has both lowest Equivalent Average and lowest Value Over Replacement Player (-5.6!) among regular M's (with more than 100 plate appearances). His .216 EqA is even lower than Scott Spiezio's
Ichiro: has both highest EqA (.312) and highest VORP (50.6) among regular M's

Bloomquist: from Port Orchard
Ichiro: from Kasugai, Japan, about as far from Port Orchard as you can get

Bloomquist: can't get down a bunt, even as a sacrifice
Ichiro: regularly bunts for base hits

Bloomquist: considered a poor man's Charles Gipson
Ichiro: considered a rich man's Kenny Lofton, or maybe is just much richer than Kenny Lofton

Bloomquist: primarily an infielder, allegedly can play the outfield
Ichiro: outstanding defensive outfielder

Bloomquist: slogan associated with him is "Wolf Pride"
Ichiro: slogan "baseball is just baseball" embodies philosophy of Zen-like grace, has inspired book

Bloomquist: He'll turn 27 in November, and is batting .239 with an OBP of .261 and a SLG of .291, may be league's Least Valuable Player
Ichiro: When he was 27, was hitting .350 and stealing 56 bases on his way to the league Most Valuable Player award

The non-similarities are eerie. Anyone else feel those Twilight Zone chills?

Let's just hope Ichiro doesn't high-five Bloomquist after a base hit. The reaction might be like matter versus anti-matter.

Lest the blog become to pessimistic: Is there a more enjoyable player to watch on the Mariners than Bobby Madritsch? Ichiro! and Bucky Jacobsen are the only players that I have as much fun tracking. Even if the guy weren't a great story -- a tattooed Lakota refugee from the independent leagues -- he pitches fearlessly, and there's a lot to be said for that in terms of watchability. This is somebody to root for.

2004-08-17T19:12:00.000-07:00

With tonight's effort -- he's 4 for 4 with five RBI as of this writing -- Ichiro has 60 multihit games on the season. This is the Mariners' 118th game.

People going to see the Mariners this year have a better than one-in-three chance of seeing two or more hits from Ichiro. Excuse me: from Ichiro!.

2004-08-16T10:40:00.000-07:00

The TV Critic becomes The Dance Critic:

Between the third and fourth innings yesterday, the Safeco Field grounds crew stopped grooming the infield to perform one of its cutesy dance routines to the tune, "There's No Business Like Show Business."

One fan in the spendy seats was so stirred that she gave the crew a standing ovation.

In truth, it wasn't deserved. The dancers' spacing was off and their movements out of sync.

Hey Mike, maybe Levesque should start posting his reviews of grounds crew dance performances on the P-I blog. It could be like American Bandstand meets Rob Ryder's ESPN column: "Well, I liked the guy with the rake, I gave him a 43."

I smell a boost to unique hits! Or maybe that's just the bullpen that stinks.

2004-08-14T18:03:00.000-07:00

Bad thing to come out of today's game: Doesn't Shigetoshi Hasegawa coming into tie games give you that Ayala-esque "well, there's no way the Green Hornet is getting out of this one" feeling?

Good thing to come out of today's game: Rico on the radio broadcast: "The Mariners and Yankees actually are about even in hits on the year. But the Yankees walk more, and they hit more home runs, and that translates to more runs."

Based upon this one, simple revelation, I'm willing to make The Rick general manager if Bavasi's willing to swap jobs.

2004-08-13T16:45:00.000-07:00

Bret Boone has cleared waivers, says Jayson Stark.

Though this means he can be traded before Aug. 31, I don't expect him to be. If the market was bad for him before, it likely still is, and he'll probably be back with us at $9 million for next year.

2004-08-13T08:55:00.000-07:00

Another reason to like Bret Boone: Hit streak, whatever. I love that Boone pooh-poohs this sort of thing, especially because the M's commentators seem obsessed with "hit streaks." Ron Fairly earlier this year said that Dan Wilson was "working on a little two-game hitting streak."

Can we just agree, as a society, that such a "streak" doesn't start until it reaches double digits? I'll ask for 15, plead to 10, settle for eight. At least eight.

Maddening: Just finished a season of Madden 2004 in anticipation of the new 2005 game's release this week, so I was pumped to read all the anticipatory propaganda foreshadowing the world's greatest video game. Sadly, save the usually reliable Sports Guy, almost all of it sucked. One example:

Is it just me, or does this guy come across as the one lamer who always manages to put the wet blanket treatment on group gatherings? "Sure, you beat me ... but you went for it on fourth down! That doesn't count!" "OK, you won ... but you hit pause when your girlfriend brought the nachos in! That's cheating!"

Someone page Spaulding Smails, I think we have a new gold medal favorite in the Whining Olympics.

This serves me right for actually looking at ESPN's Page 3. And it could be worse: I could be playing one of these.

2004-08-10T22:57:00.000-07:00

David Cameron's right. The injuries to Guardado and Soriano deal a real blow -- maybe the death blow -- to Mariner contention for next year. All year long, whenever I've wanted to play Bavasi's Advocate, I'd point to the Guardado signing as one that hadn't turned into a big sack of broken glass. So much for that.

Yes, I know that Eddie Guardado's injury isn't the GM's fault. Ultimately, though, the man at the top takes responsibility for the sundry dilemmas created by his choices. And let me tell you, the decision not to trade Guardado is looking mighty bad right now. Another reason that relief pitchers ought not be overvalued when considering untouchable trade commodities.

One more thought: Guardado is getting a second medical opinion in the hopes that he might be back on a mound before the 8-12 month forecast. The obvious thing to do would be to root for a more favorable diagnosis.

The contrarian part of me, though, says "Eddie, go get the surgery. Forget about the second opinion." That part of has two words on its lips: Scott. Spiezio.

Remember at the beginning of the year, when it seemed Sand Frog would be done with back surgery? One doc wanted him to get the ol' bones sawed on posthaste. But he got that second opinion, and glory be! He could do rehab instead.

I don't think I need to tell you how the year has turned out for the Speez. And it should be apparent that I'm suggesting his back just ain't what it needs to be.

Sure, we should have expected a decline from Spiezio anyway. This is more of a Wile E. Coyote death plunge with an Acme anvil attached to his leg, though, and I wonder if he should have just gone ahead and went with the surgical solution.

I'm not a medhead, so I don't know the physiological implications of much other than "that sixth beer is not a good idea". Doesn't it seem to you like Scott Spiezio still isn't right, though? And mightn't this offer us cautionary implications regarding player injuries? Someone page Will Carroll.

And make me a reservation for last place next year. I have a feeling the Mariners are headed there again.

2004-08-10T14:32:00.000-07:00

As it turns out, Edgar is retiring at the end of the year after all. This is good. Consider my tinfoil hat removed.

2004-08-09T14:05:00.000-07:00

So long, Edgar: Others will come with the requiems for a hall of famer, a legend and a local icon with more eloquence than I. Since it's my policy not to pile on, but to fill in gaps where I have something to offer, I will say simply this: we will all miss Edgar, a quiet and classy player, one of the top 50 hitters of all time, a Hall of Famer in our hearts and hopefully Cooperstown as well.

But.

Maybe it's the suspicious investigative reporter gene in me, but I think we're going to hear more on this.

Do I have a rational basis for believing in the dark lining to this dark cloud? Yes and no. Here are the dots we can see so far:

As the ESPN story points out, Edgar was upset about Olerud's release. He'd also been losing at-bats, of course.

It's also unusual for a player to up and retire immediately, in the middle of a season like this. It could be that Edgar, ever the class act, didn't want to go out as a show pony on a last meaningless trot through ballyards dragging a last-place record. That would be consistent with his character.

When Lou Piniella left, though, it didn't come out immediately that he had been effectively forced out due to conflicts with management. Is it beyond the realm of possibility that someone had a talk with Edgar, saying that the plate appearances would be hard to come by? Or that this is Edgar's quiet protest against the dismantling of the team?

Typing these words, the notion seems a little silly. If it turns out to be the case, chalk it up to not wanting to believe the news: that Edgar Martinez has just decided not to be a Mariner any more.

2004-08-09T12:04:00.000-07:00

A little help: Can someone please tell me the Mariners didn't get shut down by Rob Bell yesterday? Anyone? Yes, it would be dishonest to tell me this. But it would make me feel better.

A 3-11 road trip. Justin Upton, here we come.

Some of my friends have made the same argument Jason Barker suggests here -- maybe Bob Melvin was the right man for the job for a veteran team, but changes have come, and the new blood is in town.

There's something to this. Certainly, people have different strengths, and laid-back Bob might have been better suited for vets than kids. The best managers can adapt, I believe -- but like any workplace, some situations are better than others.

That said, my take is that Melvin just isn't a very good manager at this stage of the game. I don't know what his clubhouse demeanor or people skills are like, but from a game-management perspective, he's brutal. Thus, it doesn't really matter if you have rookies or veterans -- if you're bunting with a power hitter or letting Willie Bloomquist hit late in the game, you're not doing what it takes to win.

Jason hopes the Mariners are "willing to consider the possibility that he's not the right guy," but I'll go a step further. I hope they use this "veteran/youth" dichotomy as an excuse to get rid of Melvin, which might help save a bit of face for the extension gaffe.

Personally, I don't care what the stated cause of dismissal is, but I get the feeling that a warm-and-fuzzy readymade excuse might make Melvin's departure more likely.

New articles: A bunch of them have happened or are coming, and I'm not keeping pace with 'em all. Today, though, I have a letter at Romenesko about the Unity conference. One of my pieces (that isn't online, unfortunately) is quoted in a ZNet story about Bush's environmental record. Trying to track down English versions of my latest two stories for the Okinawa Times, but I'm not having much luck.

In the next few days, I'll have something up at Grist and hopefully a story in E! fairly soon as well.

2004-08-07T15:28:00.000-07:00

I see we're back to bunting in the first inning tonight. That's great strategy, because it gives a free out to Mark (Pride of Mount Vernon) Hendrickson, a pitcher who couldn't get any of the first five hitters out on his own.

Then, with the bases loaded, it's much better to have a hitter like Bavasi favorite Jolbert Cabrera up than, say, Justin Leone or Mike Cameron. The latter two might strike out. The former will put the ball in play, hitting into an inning-ending twin killing.

What's sad isn't that things have gone so wrong for this team, but that they've gone right. This is the team they meant to create.

2004-08-06T19:18:00.000-07:00

Are You Ready For Auction?: UBeen in D.C. all week at the Unity: Journalists of Color conference (I'm a non-native supporting member of the Native American Journalists Association, my wife is a member of the Asian American Journalists Association).

Just got back from the benefit dinner for AAJA, which was a great event. Stellar food. Good company. A surprise visit from the Iron Chef. A hilarious keynote by Connie Chung.

In order to raise money for the scholarships they give, AAJA has an annual silent auction. This year, there were some National Pastime items of interest ...

I bid on a couple of cool autographed baseballs -- one by Ichiro, one by Shingo Takatsu -- but there were a couple of other items I thought I'd share. Some of them are incredible on their own merits, while some are ... amusing for other reasons.

This is a great package of stuff from the Nisei Baseball Research Project.

If you're into baseball history, you'd love this. Three autographed copies of "Through A Diamond," the book by Kerry Yo Nakagawa and a DVD. Hope I win that one.

Then there's a football autographed by Stuart Scott. No bids. Boo-yeah!

[Yes, Stu Scott is here, as is Stephen A. Smith. I've been desperately trying to find Stephen A. so I can try to talk him into leaving my outgoing voicemail message: "Jeff Shaw is terrible! San Shin is terrible! However ..."]

I was the only guy bidding on the Takatsu ball, which surprised me -- especially when I saw a $200 bid on a cap signed, by all people, Chan Ho Park. Two hundred simoleones!

The secret? The Korean ambassador to the U.S. and his wife were at the event. Guess who bid the price up.

I don't really have the money for any of the stuff I bid on, but it's a great cause, and I really wanted that Ichiro ball. Also wanted the Diamond Club M's seats that Seattle Times publisher Frank Blethen donated, but the bidding went too rich for my blood.

2004-08-05T10:35:00.000-07:00

The promised typhoon: I'm in D.C. this week, and the M's just finished up a series with the Orioles, so I get a outside impression of what a laughingstock the M's have become. The local sports media has been talking about what a disappointment it would be not to come away with a sweep. Which, of course, they did.

Speaking of sweeps, this whole roster should have had a little late summer cleaning affected upon it at the deadline -- but it didn't happen. Why not?

Two reasons: Bavasi's misdealings have lowered the Mariners to a spare parts franchise, one of those junker cars you see that might yield a working timing belt, maybe an oil pan you can use, but nothing you'd go to Napa and drop actual money for. The one player we actually moved, Dave Hansen, is the perfect example.

And what about the players we didn't move? Well, there's Mike Myers, who the team didn't get any good offers for, but hopes to get better value for after he clears waivers (?). There's Ron Villone, whose value will never be higher, and who we'll sign to an inflated contract next year. There's Randy Winn, who is apparently such an underrated player that he generated no real interest. We apparently could have moved his bloated contract, but Bob Melvin lobbied to keep him.

[And speaking of throwing good money after bad, the rumblings are that Melvin's job's in jeopardy. I've got no problem with this, of course -- but doesn't this mean that activating his extension was the fiscal equivalent of taking money you could have bought fireworks with, and instead lighting said greenbacks on fire?]

Are you happy that any of these players are still on the team?

I'm not. And it's a joke that all of them still are.

Let's also talk about the one player that likely would have brought the most value in trade. Apparently, the details of Eddie Guardado's "mutual option" contract are such that the team has the first shot at activating his deal. If they don't, he has the choice to activate the contract himself. The M's decided that closer is a difficult position to fill, thus opted to keep every-fifth-day Eddie, an old (if above average) reliever with a tired arm.

This contract, combined with Bavasi's post-deadline quotes, all but ensure Eddie will be back with the team next year. This means we'll be paying him at least $6 million, $7 million if he meets incentives.

I fear that this contract will make people appreciate Kazuhiro Sasaki. And his luggage.

Combine this with the overpaid (but somewhat productive) Raul Ibanez, the overpaid (but might return to productive) Bret Boone and the overpaid (but incredibly, dramatically, Cirillianly unproductive) Scott Spiezio and you have a bunch of roster spots where the financial outlay outstrips the production. This is bad.

At the deadline, the M's failed to clear any deadwood, acquire any meaningful prospects, get any younger, get any more powerful, or do anything creative to set themselves up for next year.

The balance of the evidence points to one devastating conclusion: Bill Bavasi is not the man you want evaluating talent. Or, for that matter, handing out contracts.

I said this to a friend when we hired Three-Dollar Bill. The Mariners won't make the playoffs as long as he's the general manager.

Sidenote: I opened the Washington Post this morning to find out a story about how Bob Melvin has so much respect for Rafael Palmeiro, he brought in "his best left-hander, Mike Myers, to face him."

Those words sear me like I sat on a wood stove.

Finally, what is the big deal about Paul LoDuca? Yes, he's having a fine year. Yes, he's so gritty you could take the paint off your deck with him. But he's still a 32-year-old catcher who has only topped an .800 OPS in one full season.

2004-08-01T14:50:00.000-07:00

Dave Henderson, zen philosopher: Two examples from the fifth inning of today's game.

First, he tells a story during Bret Boone's at-bat about how Bob Boone (Bret's dad) kept framing pitches on him. Dave says he wanted "to hit Boone with his bat" a few times because he kept getting calls on pitches that were off the plate. Why, you ask, would the umpires favor him in this way? "Because he had 20 years in, and I only had five."

Flash forward two batters. Bucky Jacobsen, down 0-2, works the count full. He takes a pitch just off the plate for ball four. Henderson lavishly praises Bucky, saying: "That's the way you get a reputation for having a good eye -- you take pitches just off the plate. As a rookie, you have to take those pitches. If you do, the umpires start giving them to you."

Clearly, Hendu understands the paradoxes of zen. The strike zone has become the empty vessel. We must become detached from the impermanent 3-2 count. Especially the rookies.

Except, given reincarnation, there are no rookies.

Dave Henderson, general manager: Dave gives a thumbs down to the Dodgers' trade for Brad Penny and Hee Seop Choi, saying that "Sure, there are the numbers, but the game is played by people." Dave is aghast that Paul DePodesta (who he and Rick called out by name) would trade "the heart of the ball club," one Paul Lo Duca.

Quoth Hendu:

"It's like cutting your leader's head off."

I don't even have a line here. That'll have to stand on its own. Though maybe it's time for a USS Mariner check of how those first-year GMs are doing with their new teams. I bet Paul stacks up OK.

2004-08-01T07:29:00.000-07:00

This may be my favorite Google search that has ever led anyone to the site: "Jim Hendry Should Be Put In Jail + Garciaparra."

This deal is a bad one for the Red Sox. I know Nomar's disgruntled and in the decline phase of his career, but I'd rather have Nomar Garciaparra playing shortstop after nine beers than have Orlando Cabrera in his prime, on steroids, with those Dr. Octopus arms swinging four of Barry Bonds' maple bats.

If Doug Mientkeiwicz's wrist is healthy, that's a nice pickup for defense and a lefthanded stick that can get on base, I guess. Seems like not nearly enough, though.

A rant on the Mariners' inactivity at the trade deadline is coming. Like a typhoon, it has to build strength.

2004-07-30T17:09:00.000-07:00

How could we have not even interviewed Paul DePodesta? I don't know where the roulette wheel of plays is going to stop, but even if it halts right here, leaving the Unit in Arizona, the Dodgers made out like bandits by getting Brad Penny and Hee Seop Choi.

But the real stunner of the day so far is the trade of Scott Kazmir by the Mets. When I first read the deal, I thought they had acquired Carlos Zambrano. I thought, hey, that's a high price to pay, but at least they got a quality ... then I saw the word Victor. I'm still recovering.

In the past, I suggested offering Freddy Garcia for Kazmir, but figured the Mets would laugh at that offer. I'm still pleased with what we got for Freddy, but if this was the price for Kazmir, I really regret the M's not looking for a match to get him.

2004-07-29T15:20:00.000-07:00

This is a funny article in the Chicago Daily Herald. It would make me cry if I were a White Sox fan, but because I'm an M's fan, it's amusing.

Want to know why the Twins swept the Sox, and why they're favored to win the division? No, silly, it's not because Magglio Ordonez and Frank Thomas are hurt.

It's because the Sox don't have the leadoff hitter they need: Jason Kendall.

Stop laughing -- the guy's serious! Check it out:

Even if the White Sox had Magglio Ordonez and Frank Thomas in the lineup instead of on the disabled list, they'd still have a glaring need at the top of the order ...

If the Sox are serious about overcoming this week's three-game sweep by Minnesota and getting back into the race, Williams has got to act fast and find a proven leadoff hitter ... one player in particular would instantly solve the White Sox' trouble at the top of the order.

Jason Kendall.

You don't need those two slugging all-stars back. After all, Kendall is "one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball" and, even more importantly, he's "gritty." Most important of all, he "plays the game the right way."

So forget about Maggs and the Big Hurt. Magglio Ordonez is not walking through that door! Timo Perez might be walking through that door, but he isn't the answer! This time, the hero comes in the form of an over-30 catcher with a sub-.800 OPS who has stolen eight bases this year. While being caught seven times.

How he can maintain this ratio and remain one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball is very impressive indeed.

Skeptics might point to the whopping $10 million Kendall is due next season, or the $11 million he'll be paid the year after, or the staggering $13 million in '07. Fret not, gentle Pale Hose backer! This writer, Scot Gregor, has heard that the Pirates were willing to pay half of Kendall's contract just to get him out of town!

So, for the low, low price of $17 million over three seasons for a catcher in the decline phase of his career, you can get all this grit that Kendall brings to the table. "If the Pirates are still willing to [pay half the remaining money]," Gregor writes, "the Sox should send Class AAA Charlotte starting pitcher Felix Diaz and another player or two to the Pirates and get Kendall."

Perhaps the Pirates would also like the fillings out of Ken Williams' teeth while they're at it. It would no doubt be worth it for one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball. And then neither Magglio nor Frank would have to rush back, with the future of the franchise assured.

2004-07-29T06:45:00.000-07:00

Losing doesn't bother me. Really.

Sure, we'd all like to be cheering for a first-place team right now -- but since that's not happening, I'm enjoying watching all the new players that have been stuck at Tacoma. We're going to lose a few, but that's OK.

What bothers me? Failure to learn from the mistakes that have caused the losing. [Scroll past the part about Eddie Guardado's outburst.]

With the trade deadline coming up on Saturday, the Mariners are about 50-50 on whether they will make another move ... Melvin admitted that there is interest from other clubs in left-handed pitchers Ron Villone and Mike Myers and in Hansen as a pinch hitter.

The club isn't at all anxious to deal Villone, a reversal from a few weeks ago when it seemed likely Villone was headed elsewhere.

"Villone would be a tough guy for us to move right now with all the trouble we've had with our starting rotation lately," Melvin said. "He's a veteran who's done a good job, and you don't want to go out there with all kids." ...

Hansen and Myers have had good moments with the Mariners, and in particular, the club would like to keep Hansen ... Myers, as a situational lefty in the bullpen, has some value to contending teams, too. If he's traded, the Mariners have three other lefties in the bullpen to soften the blow.

This is mindbogglingly asinine. I am sitting here with my lower lip dragging against the computer desk in awe, trying to find the words to describe how ludicrous holding onto any of these players is.

These are spare parts for a contending team. We're not a contending team. We don't need any of them. If Willie Bloomquist is apparently too good to pinch-hit for, why do you need Dave Hansen? Villone is a journeyman who is a free agent at the end of the year. And go back and re-read that line about Mike Myers: "If he's traded, the Mariners have three other lefties in the bullpen to soften the blow." Soften the blow. From trading a mediocre LOOGY? When you have three other left-handed relievers?

Before the season started to go south, I defended Bob Melvin (sort of) by pointing out that he won 93 games last year. If the team exploded, I suggested, it was largely a personnel issue.

Since, Melvin's game-management decisions have baffled me (and Dave, and Mike, and others).

This is worse than being paralyzed by old-school addictions to bunting and an aversion to sensical substitutions. Keeping these players is an indication that Melvin, or Bill Bavasi -- or more likely both -- has no idea why this team took a nose-dive this year.

Here's a hint: it has nothing to do with "going out there with all kids." It has everything to do with relying on mediocre, overpriced, easily replaceable veterans.

This year's gone. Refusing to part with players of that nature makes me fear for next year, too.

2004-07-28T15:08:00.000-07:00

Another quote from that Jim Street story I just linked has Bob Melvin (sort of) praising Miguel Olivo:

"There is a lot of (sic) work with there," Melvin said. "He can run, throw and hit to all fields with power and is very enthusiastic on top of that. And he's very upbeat. He still has some work to do in learning our pitchers, but that will come the more games he catches."

Olivo, it seems, just needs more experience. That way the 24 year old can grow and be effective when the M's are ready to contend. So why isn't Olivo starting against lefties, say, like Mark Mulder? Well, maybe Melvin just wanted to rest the young backstop, to give him a day off.

Except he inserts him as a pinch-runner for Dan Wilson in the eighth after Wilson reaches base. Seriously.

Is Bob Melvin the only person in Seattle who didn't think Olivo had a better chance to get a hit off a tiring Mulder than Wilson did? If you're going to put him in the game, great, but does anyone really think Wilson is a better hitter than Olivo at this point -- against any pitcher?

And while I'm at it: what is Willie Bloomquist doing hitting against Mark Mulder late in a tie game with Edgar Martinez on the bench, available for pinch-hitting? And where is Eddie Guardado? Why leave Mateo out there to give up the game -- against left-handed Scott Hatteberg, left-handed Erubiel Durazo, and left-handed Mark Kotsay no less?

Substitution patterns and bullpen management are costing this team easily winnable games. I really can't think of a single good argument for not firing Melvin.

2004-07-28T14:50:00.000-07:00

Two weeks, two big false alarms: A new story on MLB.com takes a poke at KJR. Scroll down to "Listen Up."

Jim Street chastises the station for erroneously reporting that Joel Pineiro's injury was more serious than it was and for reporting that Gil Meche had been traded for Mike Sweeney, the subject of much scrambling and frenzy this morning.

I'm not at all a KJR fan, but this isn't really fair. On Pineiro, they were just repeating a report by Fox's Ken Rosenthal. This morning, they didn't report that Meche had been traded -- they just leapt to an irresponsible conclusion based on an abruptly canceled interview.

Says a lot about KJR's accuracy, though, that my defense of them is just based on credulity rather than credibility.

2004-07-28T13:38:00.000-07:00

Misery by the Numbers: Hey Mike, nice chart. Spiffy, even. One question, though: why not throw Scott Spiezio into the mix?

After all, our boy from Sand Frog has put up a Bloomquistian line of .211/.286/.358/.644 thus far, and that stacks up with anybody on that list.

In fact, the numbers are eerily similar to Rich Aurilia's pre-release .241/.304/.337/.641, and Speez is playing a supposedly offense-centric position. Check out Steve's chronicle of our prize free agent's assault on the Cirillo Line. Then revel in another weak groundout. Oh, the humanity.

2004-07-28T09:12:00.000-07:00

Transcribed verbatim from last night's postgame news conference:
REPORTER: Bob, why did you let Willie Bloomquist bat against Octavio Dotel when you could have pinch-hit with Bucky Jacobsen, a hitter with the power to tie the game?

BOB MELVIN: Well, three reasons: first, as I told John Hickey, "Willie's probably got a better chance to get on base there." I thought Willie's robust .285 on-base percentage gave us the best chance to extend that inning. Of course, later I looked at Bucky's numbers, and his on-base percentage is over .400, so that didn't work out.

Second, as I told Bob Finnigan, "Bucky ... had never seen Dotel before." But as it turns out, Willie hadn't either before last night! It was his first at-bat against Dotel! So that didn't work out.

Third -- and mainly -- we just want to give Willie a chance to show what he can do. And in that situation, he showed us he isn't afraid to strike out late in the game.

REPORTER: Bob, Bill Bavasi says Ramon Santiago is a fine defensive player who can "pick it up and throw it." Why not put in Santiago for defense late in a close game instead of leaving in Bloomquist, whose eighth inning error gave Erubiel Durazo an at-bat with a runner aboard?

BOB MELVIN: We want to take a good hard look at Bloomie this year to see if he figures in our plans as a starter next year. And we really like his arm strength. He showed me a lot on that wild throw: a lot of players wouldn't have been able to get that much on the ball. Plus, he showed real grit, making an error in the eighth inning and having the wherewithal to gather himself and whiff in the ninth.

Besides, we need to give him a chance to prove himself. Some players, like Jacobsen and Justin Leone, proved they can play the game in the minor leagues. Willie didn't really prove much in the minors, so we figured we'd give him a shot to do so at the major league level.

REPORTER: But if you aren't going to use Santiago for his defense -- he's hitting below .200 in Tacoma, after all -- then why call him up?

BOB MELVIN: Baseball is all about confidence. And right now, Willie's confidence isn't where it needs to be, what with him being the most anemic hitter on the team and all.

So we figured that we'd call up Ramon to boost Bloomie's confidence: Willie's .320 slugging percentage will start to look pretty good after a few days watching Santiago take batting practice. It'll only help Willie's outlook.

Trade Eddie Guardado: ... say both John McGrath and David Cameron, for different reasons. Both make good arguments -- Cameron about clearing dollars to swim in the deep ensuing free agent pool, McGrath about Eddie's relative utility on a bad team.

Here's another. Guardado's contract is a mutual-option contract, and there's no guarantee he's coming back. Thus, there are two off-season scenarios for Eddie: either you lose him for nothing, or he exercises the option to come back at his full salary.

Obviously, if you're going to lose him for nothing, turning him into a prospect is the better option. Both ways, you clear his salary, but you also get something for him. If there's any risk he walks -- and I think there's substantial risk -- there's no reason not to deal Eddie.

2004-07-27T20:28:00.000-07:00

Rumblings: There was a lot of buzzing over the weekend about a potential deal that would have sent Mike Sweeney to Seattle. But the Royals are believed to have told Sweeney they would trade him only if they could get him into a pennant race. So that Seattle deal? Not happening.

Woo-hoo! Yes! Thank you, Jayson Stark!

But:

According to clubs that have spoken with the Phillies, they scouted Seattle's Ron Villone over the weekend but were told he's no longer available.

Boo! Go home, Stark! Quit spreading your venomous lies!

2004-07-27T14:22:00.000-07:00

Are they going to start offering discount airfare to San Diego for former Mariners?: From the Union-Tribune:

John Olerud, the Seattle first baseman who was released, is on the Padres' radar ... but for now he's a long shot to join San Diego's pennant bid.

Random items: Matt from The Grand Salami has been writing great posts lately. Actually, the whole gang have. Patronize the place if you don't already.

I totally agree with Tyler about Ricky Williams. Put yourself in his position. You're 27 years old. You have a lot of interests and a lot of money in the bank. You don't feel passionately about your job, a job that could well leave you permanently disabled.

So what do you do? You quit, and you go do the things you like.

There is more to life than sport and the expectations of others. Have we learned nothing else from Randall "Pink" Floyd?

2004-07-27T08:36:00.000-07:00

First basemen, second thoughts, third arm surgeries: We all breathed a sigh of relief when it turned out Fox News' report on Joel Pineiro's injury was heinously inaccurate. I've never been so glad to strike a post as I was to deep-six the one about how this dealt a real blow to the team's chances next year.

But one interesting, underreported part of this story relates to Gil Meche, who will likely be called up while Joel is on the DL.

Remember the hubbub about whether Meche had an option left? We eventually established that he did, but this is definitely his last option year.
(Edited ~ 10 a.m. to correct an inaccurate explanation of the option process. Thanks to Steve at Mariners Wheelhouse.)

Speculation? The M's have a trade nearly in place involving Meche. His two weeks with the big club would carry us through the deadline.

In fact, you might have heard the Mike Sweeney rumor, and it looks like Gil's situation may be intertwined with it:

The Mariners and Royals are deep into discussions on a trade that would send slugger MIKE SWEENEY to Seattle in exchange for starter GIL MECHE and some prospects. The proposed deal has raised eyebrows with some executives, who wonder why the Mariners would want a player with a questionable back and $37.5 million due to him over the next three years. But Mariners GM BILL BAVASI recognizes his organization, which is loaded with pitching prospects, is devoid of young power hitters.

"Deep into discussions," eh? That sounds more serious than "are believed to be interested." Where do I get that latter phrase, you ask? From another rumor about another first baseman.

Mariner Minky?: Absent from trade speculation in the blogosphere recently has been the fate of Twins first sacker Doug Mientkiewicz. He's been told that he'll be traded before the deadline to make room for Justin Morneau -- a wise decision -- and the Mariners are among teams "believed to be interested in his services."

Both of these players fit right into the Bavasi/Mariner pattern of acquisition -- clean-cut white guys with reputations as Veteran Leaders. Sweeney's got local ties; Minky was an Olympic hero, like Kurt Angle without the power. Both are also on the wrong side of 30, of course.

Regarding Sweeney, while he's a better hitter, he's also a dramatic injury risk. You'd think that Scott Spiezio would have taught Three Dollar Bill a lesson about older corner infielders with back trouble, but apparently not.

And sweet mother of pancake batter, look at that contract! $11 million a year, every year, through 2007? With an escalator clause that bumps his deal up to $12.5 million annually if he gets traded? That's not an albatross, that's a dead blue whale with vestigial wings. And if you're trading with Kansas City, forget about them contributing dollars toward the remainder of his deal.

Plus, does anyone think it'll take $12.5 million a year to get Carlos Delgado? It would seem wiser to wait until the off-season, sign the Jays' slugger (who is left-handed and likely less of an injury risk) and not give up any prospects.

Minky's more complex. He's still a stellar defensive player and has been an underrated offensive player in the past. Like Delgado, he's lefthanded (about the only trait they share). And while his $3.75 million deal through next year (with a 2006 option) isn't cheap, it's not a crushing stone weight, either.

Of course, he's headed form the decline phase of his career. While Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system doesn't see him collapsing, it's hard to imagine him making a major impact, either.

The bottom line for me is that Sweeney is much too big a risk to pursue. Back problems can be devastating for sluggers, and trading for him means taking a chance on getting almost nothing for a huge investment.

Minky, on the other hand, could be a valuable player under the right circumstances. Combine him with Bucky Jacobsen, and you could have a relatively low-cost tandem at first (yes, Bucky's better served as a DH, so it shouldn't be a strict platoon arrangement). That would free up money to go after real mashers.

If the price is right, getting Mientkiewicz could make sense. But Sweeney? Pass.

Shameless Jeff-Promotion: Got a brief article in the July/August Sierra Magazine. If you get a hard copy, there's a really cool photo that goes with it, but no such luck on the website.

2004-07-26T11:40:00.000-07:00

Not Pro-Villone, But Pro-Trading Villone: Trying not to read too much into the reports that Ron Villone won't be traded, since said reports don't seem to be based on anything.

The prevalance of these reports is still disturbing, though, and it isn't just the Philly news reporting that he's off the market. Have a look at this P-I notebook, which says:

"[T]he possibility of contending teams prying pitcher Ron Villone and/or pinch-hitting specialist Dave Hansen from the club can be discounted."

Talk about tortured prose: another example of the passive voice doing the reader wrong, in my view. It "can be discounted"? Discounted by who? By fans? Other front offices? And according to who? Who says it "can be discounted?" Whether it's Bill Bavasi saying this or an outside analyst makes a big difference, and even the awful "a source within the organization" clause would tell us more than this does.

[While I'm at it, what does "can be discounted" even mean? You can believe the M's are going to rally to win the West, but that doesn't mean you should, let alone you have to. The context of the article implies that we ought to give up on trading Villone. And why?

Because, get this, Villone didn't like being traded the last time he was. Huh?

Last time I checked, Ron Villone was a 34 year-old journeyman pitcher signed to an overvalued one-year contract when no other club seemed interested in him. The deal didn't include a no-trade clause, and was basically the M's making a significant financial investment in a commodity that didn't look like it would provide an equivalent return.

As it turns out, Villone's had a fine year, increasing his perceived value. At the end of the year, he'll either walk as a free agent or re-sign to an even more inflated, overvalued contract, neither of which are good options for the investing party.

Shouldn't the Mariners take the third path, flipping him for whatever they can get, thereby getting a return on their financial outlay -- and shouldn't they do this whether it would please Villone or not?

Disturbing Referrer Log Result of the Week: One person found the site by Googling all the Blogspot pages for "wife's legs."

2004-07-26T09:28:00.000-07:00

The Blog Ate My Homework, I Swear: Had a long post eaten by Blogger yesterday. Finally, I feel the pain of others who have had such missives swallowed into the maw of swirling pixels that is this Intermanet thing.

The post, among other things, celebrated the protean return of the late and lamented Safe, a.k.a. Gabriel and Jeffrey's Safest Blog on the Web. Gabe's set up a news aggregator from various Mariner news sources, and has reinvented The Safe as a valuable collection of M's news links.

Welcome back, in pog (er, blog) form.

Extracurricular Favorites: San Shin has two new favorite non-Mariner players, both Red Sox, both already likeable guys who went that extra mile for me this weekend.

-- Most every Mariner fan has wanted to do what Jason Varitek did this weekend:

Thanks, Jason! And anybody who wants to give Varitek static for leaving the mask on misses that ol' A-Rod started the scrap with his choice profanities at the catcher. He knew what he was getting into. If you try to step up against the guy in the mask, it's not his job to level the playing field.

Of course, he could've head-butted him with the mask and I'd be saying the same thing. But I digress.

-- Kevin Millar's always had a great attitude. Setting aside "Cowboy Up," even, he seems to appreciate the gifts he's been given as a major league player. Said he felt like he should give back a portion of his new contract 'cause it was too much money, for example.

But high-fiving the Officially Endorsed Candidate of San Shin after homering against the hated Yankees really puts you over the top with me. Talk about doubling your pleasure. Testify!

Also: Let me rock a non-baseball plug. The Women's Debate Institute, the nonprofit debate camp for girls that I volunteer with, is still accepting registrations through Aug. 1.

Debate's an amazing activity for developing young minds (and young college applications). If you have a daughter in high school or know of a bright young woman looking for applications of her intellect, I can't recommend the activity or the WDI staff enough.

We feel strongly about keeping the costs down, so the staff doesn't get paid. Hence, WDI is a federal 501c3, and is accepting fully tax-deductible donations to help defray costs. It's hard for me to fundraise -- asking people for their hard-earned coin has always been a struggle. Suffice it to say, I wouldn't even think about posting a donation link if I weren't 100% enthusiastic about how awesome this camp is, or if I were less than fully convinced that every buck donated saves a high school kid or her family some money.

2004-07-25T00:00:00.000-07:00

"In other trade news, a league source said Seattle Mariners pitcher Ron Villone won't be headed to Philadelphia. He is off the market." -- Philadelphia Inquirer, Sunday

"The Phillies will be watching with interest as Seattle Mariners' lefthander Ron Villone makes his third start of the season tonight. Villone (3-2, 3.13 ERA) will be facing visiting Anaheim.

"The 34-year-old Villone has made 36 appearances this year, including 34 in relief. The Phillies have had some scouts at his games, fueling speculation that he could be part of a trade to Philadelphia."-- Philadelphia Inquirer, Saturday.

"Despite their public claims to the contrary, the Mariners are listening to what is available for closer Eddie Guardado, and will deal lefty set-up men Mike Myers and Ron Villone." -- New York Post, Sunday

What's really going on? Your guess is as good as mine. But now is the right time to deal Villone, and I hope a pact gets sealed soon.

2004-07-21T07:19:00.000-07:00

Another non-starter of a rumor: The Minnesota Star-Tribune speculates that the Twins might seek Dan Wilson from the Mariners to take some of the pressure off Joe Mauer, who recently returned from injury:

One player mentioned by some in the Twins organization has been former Gophers star Dan Wilson. Wilson, 35, is backing up Miguel Olivo in Seattle, can play several days in a row and is a free agent after the season. Since he's a free agent and likely will leave Seattle after this year, the Mariners might be willing to accept a midlevel prospect in return.

Well, I would certainly take a midlevel prospect for Wilson. But Bavasi already said that Dan, Jamie and Edgar weren't going anywhere. Much as I'd like to see this happen, it's not going to.

2004-07-20T14:58:00.000-07:00

It's the third inning. Your opponent's struggling starting pitcher has thrown about fifty pitches -- you've got him on the ropes, but haven't eked out more than one run yet. But you've got your number three hitter up, the slugger who won last night's game with a Grand Salami. What do you do?

If you're Bunting Bob, you sacrifice, of course. We've got to play for one or two runs early! If we get one or two runs every inning, we might be able to overcome the snowman that they're going to hang on us in the fourth inning.

Anyone care to make the "home runs kill rallies" argument now? Anyone?

2004-07-20T14:15:00.000-07:00

If you've got MLB.tv, get on over to the Oakland-Toronto game and check out a fantastic pitchers' duel. 'Nuff said.

Update: I would feel guilty about jinxing David Bush's no-hitter, which he gave up with one out in the eighth, but those Jays broadcasters don't have our American superstitions. They were throwing around the term "no-hitter" and references to the zeros in the hit column from about the fifth inning. Still, great pitching performance by both Bush and Rich Harden.

2004-07-20T12:39:00.000-07:00

Boone update: Peter Gammons says "[s]everal GMs now insist" that the Mariners may release Bret Boone rather than let his option for next year vest.

Despite his status as a member of the unchallengable sports journalism pantheon, Gammons is wrong a lot. I'd be shocked if he were right about this. If he is, it would be a colossally stupid move on the part of the Mariners: give Boone up for nothing, leave yourself a hole that's difficult to fill, and risk a serious union grievance which might cripple the only rationale for the move, financial flexibility? Bad, bad, bad idea.

Gammons also confirms the "Moyer not available for trade" stuff that everyone is reporting.

2004-07-20T11:09:00.000-07:00

The Trade Deadline Approaches: John Olerud? Gone. Rich Aurilia? Buh-bye. Freddy Garcia? Long gone, signed to an overpriced contract.

Tradeable commodities are scarce on this team now. We know Bill Bavasi has been trying to move Gil Meche, but Meche cleared waivers a month ago, has been bringing a new aroma to Tacoma, and has a history of arm injury. Good luck getting anything for him.

USA Today reports that teams continue to ask about Jamie Moyer, and the Mariners continue to say no. I believe Bavasi when he says Jamie isn't going anywhere. So who does that leave?

Bret Boone. Bret Boone of your game-winning grand slam last night, giving rise to hopes that his bat is awakening.

Other than Eddie Guardado, who I may post about tomorrow, Boone is the last commodity the Mariners have that could potentially bring trade value. Some folks want to see Boone's $9 million contract for next year moved for prospects, assuming we could get a worthwhile deal. Some want to see Boone stick around, surrounded by new thunder from the free agent market.

Count me in the latter category. Though I always keep an open mind about potential swaps -- it all depends on what you get back, after all -- the market for Boone seems so soft as to defy reason. The Times reported a few days ago that the M's were set to deal Boone and Freddy Garcia to the Yankees, but the Yanks balked because they didn't want to pay Boone's salary and give up prospects.

[How flabbergasting is that? The Yankees didn't want to pay an overpriced veteran. And doesn't this make the Garcia-to-the-White-Sox deal look even sweeter? We could have been looking at giving Boone and Garcia to the Evil Empire for Dioner Navarro. Dodged a bullet there.]

If that's the market, you've gotta keep Boone. Sure, it's unlikely he'll earn his $9 million next year. But what free agent second baseman is likely to be better? Also, I think there's a better chance Boone will earn his money based on his last three years of performance than any readily available alternative.

Contrast that with, say, outfield and first base, where Carloses Beltran and Delgado are available, respectively. Position scarcity is much scarier at second base.

If Bucky Jacobsen proves to be a viable, inexpensive DH option, that opens up the coffers for a run at two major free agent bats and an arm or two. Boone could be, at worst, a solid-if-overpriced complementary piece in that lineup. At best, perhaps he returns to last year's form. That's a risk I think has to be taken given the other choices.

2004-07-19T17:45:00.000-07:00

Would you rather ... ?: In darkened buses or the back of class, we've all played the game "would you rather ... ?" This juvenile enterprise consists of choosing between two awful options conceived of by the asker and visited upon the askee. I'll leave the horrors you asked about/were asked about in the dark recesses of your memories and not inflict mine upon you in this post.

But here's a would-you-rather for the Mariners -- would you rather get clowned by a cranky veteran columnist or by one of those pseudo-hip "sportswriters" trying to pretend he has a clue about baseball?

Let's remove the abstract. Today's entries, starting with Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe:

The Sox are in Seattle tonight for two games. The Mariners are playing dead-ass baseball and are ripe to be swept. Time for the Red Sox to get something going on the road.

Raw. "Dead-ass baseball?" "Ripe to be swept"? The truth defense is for libel, not for bile.

Does it, though, sting as much as this, from Lang Whitaker of SI.com?:

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays have designated Fred McGriff ... for assignment ... McGriff ends his Tampa tenure with 493 career home runs, tied with Lou Gehrig for 21st on the all-time home run list. We now call upon the Seattle Mariners, who are 30 games under .500 and have been using utility players at first base, to give him one last chance. You know, for the kids.

The McGriff crack hurts, no doubt about it. In fact, this hurts much worse than the Shaugnessy barb, and not because it's clever or funny, because it's really not.

No, this reads like a prescripted line from a hack comedy show writer -- someone who has this McGriff gag all ready, then checks the sports page to see what team is sucking the most wind. Need more convincing? What hardcore baseball fan would say that the M's "have been using utility players at first base"? Huh?

When you become the butt of the casual fan's jokes, you've achieved real ignominy.

2004-07-18T23:20:00.000-07:00

Is tonight an anomaly, or: does Bucky Jacobsen suddenly have a target on his back? Granted, the late-inning shot off his hip was probably not intentional. But Scott Elarton buzzing one behind his head? Curious. The guy's been in the big leagues less than a week.

May your deity of choice help you if you're seeking a lefty: Sayeth Ken Rosenthal,

"The dearth of quality lefthanded relievers could lead some clubs to pursue righthanders who are effective against lefties. The Brewers' Luis Vizcaino and Blue Jays' Terry Adams - holding lefties to batting averages of .203 and .205, respectively — both fit that description. The Mariners' Ron Villone might be the most attractive lefty available. He's holding lefties to a .178 BA . . ."

Haven't had much time for blogging lately with the aftermath of my Okinawa trip; plus, I've been spending lots of time underwater this summer. Still, wanted to say that my interest in the M's has been revitalized with all the changes. I expect to be back posting regularly from here on out.

2004-07-15T07:55:00.000-07:00

Shameless Jeff-Promotion: New article out on the cover of the Bellingham Herald's weekly Take Five entertainment insert. It's about disc golf. Most of the most interesting stuff (to me) was removed during the editing process, including a quote from a player who told me: "This is my drug rehab. If it weren't for this sport, I'd be doing crank right now."

Olerud: A quick take on the Olerud DFA, while trying not to repeat other blogosphere opinions. This seems to me to be a very low-impact move: while Olerud's got name value, he's also a free agent at the end of the year that likely wouldn't return anyway. Essentially, this moves gives the Mariners half a season to look at some younger players.

What really strikes me, though, is how quickly this team is becoming bereft of valuable commodities -- or at least commodities perceived as valuable. Looking up and down the roster, only Bret Boone seems likely to bring anything in a trade. If Bavasi is able to do more than simply dump the contracts of other potential ship-outs (Winn, Spiezio) then I'll be very impressed.

2004-07-13T13:10:00.000-07:00

Today's Seattle Times has a cool story about a couple who road-tripped to every major and minor league ballpark in the U.S. and Canada. Aside from the style points inherent in this action, they get a bonus for this:

Only place they didn't cheer for the home team: Yankee Stadium.

The couple also have a website documenting the trip.

2004-07-13T10:08:00.000-07:00

This Does for Baseball Commentary What the Noriega Barricade Did for Pop Songs: I'm glad to know I'm not the only one who thinks having Hawk Harrelson and Darrin Jackson in the same booth is a violation of the Geneva Convention.

With all the publicity over the Lynndie England photos, we haven't heard as much about the stunning allegations of Iraqis being forced to listen to White Sox broadcasts at Abu Ghraib. A far worse affront, I fear. And you can put that on the board.

Many Hands Make the Weighty Work of Optimism Light: We're all trying to pitch in for positivity in Corey's self-imposed exile. I've done it. After the Garcia trade, lots of us did it. Now, David Cameron adds some champagne and roses, noting that David Andriesen's piece today contains choice, incisive morsels.

Desperately seeking a topic during the All-Star doldrums, I latched onto this. After all, I've cracked back on Andriesen a time or two. Who can forget "Feisty Melvin gets ejected, team wins"? How about "Well, nobody saw this team's collapse coming"? Or everyone's favorite, the pre-season magnum opus "Quit whining, you blog geeks, everyone in baseball knows Bavasi is the man," which contains this instant classic:

The building of [Anaheim's] roster, and the management of a pitching-rich farm system similar to Seattle's in Los Angeles, have him prepared to guide Seattle baseball into its rapidly approaching next era.

Insert your own joke about the "next era" here.

Initially, this was supposed to be a counterpoint to D. Cameron's sunny-side-of-the-street take. I figured I'd go over the guy's coverage, extract some doofusness from the stories, slap together some pseudo-witticisms, and play Mariner Pessimist for a day.

But you know what? Looking over Andriesen's record for the past several months, he's a damn good reporter.

One of the reasons I keep up this blog is that I really dig accountability. We all make mistakes -- undoubtedly, I have, and will in the future. (Did I really write that the Mariners would win 86 games?) Having a record of your opinions and reasoning, like our print brethren do, forces you to take responsibility for those thoughts, and hopefully to evaluate faulty reasoning so you can improve it in the future.

Sure, Andriesen's coverage has had flaws -- even today's column demonstrates an unhealthy allegiance to batting average, for example. Most of these are motes, though, that all under the heading of "understandable" or "necessary," and hardly compare to the beams in the eyes of other baseball writers. While you can hardly get away from writing tired "welcome to town, [new player]" stories, Andriesen has included relevant info in those stories -- like the fact that Ron Villone doesn't get lefties out.

Indeed, almost all of the issues you could take (and I have taken) with his stories are mere trifles in the grand scheme. Sure, he's paid homage to logically-challenged chestnuts like "the manager needs to get ejected from time to time" or "Bavasi's family is a baseball family, so he must be qualified," but over the course of a long season, you've got to feed the copy beast, and those type of stories are old, reliable ones. Plus, good stories incorporate multiple perspectives. Just because some old-school baseball "truisms" are misguided doesn't mean they aren't worth listening to; simiIarly, I don't mind him taking shots at blogs as long as he's reading them. Fair's fair.

In short, David Andriesen is one of the reasons the P-I's sports coverage regularly treats the Times' like Mike Tyson treats everything except pigeons. In the dark backward of baseball journalism, he's got a pretty good headlamp. Keep up the good work.

Speaking of Mariner Pessimist: Since Corey set up this "five straight wins and the Optimist is back!" standard, I think he should take the current losing streak as impetus to do what is referred to in professional wrestling as a "heel turn." That is:

* Register "marinerpessimist.blogspot.com";

* Publish a virulent screed of a first post about how all he wanted was five wins ... and they gave him nine losses. In a row. Which hasn't happened since I graduated from high school. But I digress;

* Announce that this abysmal record of perfidy has forced Dr. Jekkyl into the Mr. Hyde role, and from now on, the front office will be torched by the fiery rhetoric of the Mariner Pessimist. Look on his blog, ye mighty, and despair!

Or, you know, not. Whichever.

Because you care, a fantasy sports update: If Jeremy of Sports and Bremertonians thinks he's bitter about Miguel Tejada, he ought to ask me how I feel after watching the Birds' shortstop hit more home runs in one round of home run derby than he did for my fantasy team the entire first half of this year.

Sidenote: I'm one of these low-risk guys who will happily bid higher for a low-risk player. Hence, I go after guys that are slightly less awesome than Vlad Guerrero, but have sterling track records of playing full seasons. Like, for example, Tejada -- and Magglio Ordonez and Vernon Wells.

'Nuff said about how my teams are doing this year.

Actually, what's really strange is that I'm doing awful -- fifth or worse out of ten -- in my two AL-only leagues, and I know significantly more about the American League. I'm second out of 18 teams in a major-league competition that I only joined because it was free and people asked. Taking advice from me about the National League is about as reliable as taking advice from Bill Clinton on abstinence, and just as likely to provoke a smirk from my friends.

2004-07-12T11:21:00.000-07:00

Frivolous MVP balloting edition: Scott Rolen is a truly great player, having a truly great year. I am a huge fan of his, and would have loved to see the Mariners bring him in.

That said, David's right: I don't care if Barry Bonds kicked your dog, robbed your house and traded your Mantle rookie card for steroids, he's the league MVP, and you have to vote for him. Have to.

Unfair comparison: Bonds' OBP is .628. Here's the OBP for the middle of your Mariner lineup from last night:

Boone: .299
Ibanez: .323
Total: .622

That's right, it's more likely Barry Bonds will get on base in a given at-bat than either the M's No. 3 or No. 4 hitter will.

Like it or not, from a production perspective, he is our Babe Ruth. Hate him? Fine. But appreciate what we're watching.

Department of No, I'm Shocked: The Giants are happy they got off the Rich Aurilia train when they did, and have no intention of buying another ticket.

2004-07-12T09:02:00.000-07:00

* Malapropism of the week, maybe the year: Greg Johns thinks we should trade John Olerud, but keep Edgar and Bret Boone. Why keep Boone?

Personally, I'd keep Boone. He remains an excellent defensive second baseman and is too good a hitter to be done at 35. But the Mariners need to flush out their lineup around him to relieve some of the pressure. [Emphasis added]

At first, I thought Greg meant "flesh out their lineup." But the more I think about it, "flush" seems appropriate.

* Larry Stone's column today is about Felix Hernandez. It's a gush-fest, which is appropriate in an otherwise dismal and lost season.

Among the folks doing the gushing, as quoted by Stone, is fellow Futures Game participant Conor Jackson. Wait, who is Conor Jackson? Let's ask Steve.

* Don't be disappointed that the Mariners don't have anyone receiving a midseason award from Jayson Stark. Be grateful for the Bad Old Juan Gonzalez (not to be confused with Bad Young Juan Gonzalez, who we acquired for Carlos Guillen. Here's why:

AL Least Valuable Player (LVP) of the Half-Year
JUAN GONZALEZ, ROYALS -- ... You'd like to give the guy the benefit of the doubt, since he is a two-time MVP. But after 11 trips to the disabled list and countless episodes just like this one, even his own teammates have been grumbling to friends about him.
SIGHS OF RELIEF FOR: Pick a Mariner. Any Mariner.

So true it hurts.

* There's speculation in the blogosphere that Gil Meche has been traded for Michael Cuddyer, based mostly on the fact that Meche shook hands with his manager in the middle of a game and left. I just want to say that I wholeheartedly endorse this trade: we're a lot better fixed for young pitching than we are young hitting, even if Meche's arm miraculously continues to function. Plus, I've always liked Cuddyer.

Lending some additional credence to this rumor: remember, Bill Bavasi loves Jolbert Cabrera, in part because he can play so many different positions. The Twins' use of Cuddyer as a super-utility player is something that, in my view, Bavasi would value in an acquisition. We'll see.

2004-07-08T09:53:00.000-07:00

Really back this time: And just as I get back into town, it seems like Rich Aurilia's on his way out.

In honor of this, and in in honor of piece author Bob Finnigan's latest lunacy, I thought I'd take this opportunity to revisit arguably Bavasi's worst tandem move thus far: trading Carlos Guillen for nothing and replacing him with Aurilia.

Just take a quick gander at Baseball Prospectus' EqA ratings. Through July 8, Guillen was in the top slot for shortstops, while Aurilia was 13th. In case you're scoring at home, there are 14 teams in the American league.

Lest we forget, Guillen was traded for no value whatsoever. If Ramon Santiago ever becomes a major league starter, it will be because of a plane crash or a trade to the Devil Rays. Bad Young Juan Gonzalez (not to be confused with Bad Old Juan Gonzalez) wasn't even on the Tigers' top-20 prospects list, and if he makes the show, it'll be an upset.

Now, Finnigan reports that Aurilia will be gone within days, released if not traded. Think we'll get any value in return for him?

If not -- and let's be real here, who is going to give up value for a player likely to be released within days? -- then we'll have received essentially zero for the top shortstop in the American League this year.

To invert Finnigan's words: "If last winter's trade of Guillen is any indication, Howard Lincoln made a brutal hire in Bill Bavasi."

2004-06-27T21:45:00.000-07:00

Life is good: So, I'm at the international coral reef symposium in Okinawa. I've had an amazing few days, seeing and photographing rare and magnificent wildlife. And I find that my press pass grants me free internet access on a suh-weet fast internet connection.

Then, I log on, and find that Bill Bavasi has stolen San Shin Object of Affection Jeremy Reed from the White Sox along with Miguel Olivo. Hot damn, it's a good day!

I don't have time to say much more than this for now, but I wanted to point out:

1. The blog is back, in limited form, for at least the next four days or so;

2. I'll be posting a few photos from the trip in addition to the stuff I normally do here; and

and 3. Here's a link to David Cameron's post explicating the Garcia trade's virtues.

To give you an additional idea about how much David likes this trade, here's a quick tale. When I posted earlier this year that the M's should ask for Reed for Garcia, Dave -- who has forgotten more about the minors than I know -- fired off an email to me saying effectively "nice idea, but there's no way in a million years the White Sox would do that."

I am sure he is thrilled to have been mistaken. As are we all.

More later!

2004-06-22T03:04:00.000-07:00

TokyoBlogging: Wow, and i thought ? had lost the Kruk post.

In Tokyo, where I have just checked into my hotel, where they gave me ?. a room key and 2. a pair of socks. Guess they didnt like the tevas. oh well.

To Okinawa in the morning. May blog then if time. Now, off to buy presents for relatives and Debbie. Hi, Debbie!

2004-06-18T14:49:00.000-07:00

Came across something that both demonstrates 1. Why blogs are good and 2. Why John Kruk is a bad, bad analyst.

Kruk rips Bret Boone thusly:

Boone said it's been a pretty rough year for the Mariners. Why? Because last year at this time, he had about 60 RBIs, and now he only has 20-something.

What?

How about this? It's been a tough year because your team is 13 games under .500 and it's only June and it's already pretty much over for the Mariners.

Boone comes from a baseball family. His grandfather played, his dad played, and his brother Aaron ... just ask any Red Sox fan if he plays.

Coming from a family like that, you'd think he'd have a little more sense.

If this article were a blog -- or if The Kruk were able to operate this radical new technology known as "hyperlinking" -- we'd be able to see Boone's comments, hopefully even in context. 'Cause I sure don't remember Boone saying anything like that. I've seen him say a lot of "Gawd, what an awful year for everybody," and maybe he used his RBI stats as an example among many others ... but that's a far stretch what Kruk is trying to make him say.

The fact is, there's no shortage of numerical indicators for why this year has been brutal for the Mariners. You could make a Santa Claus-length list of them. If Boone wants to throw out his own numbers, I don't really have a problem with it, though I agree with Kruk's point (who doesn't?) that it's all about winning games.

Just one more reason not to ever, ever read the Kruk column again. Bad me.

Okay, I'm really going. Last post for a while, probably. Will try to post from the road, and will be back July 7 at any rate.

2004-06-18T11:32:00.000-07:00

Gene Guidi of the Detroit Free Press has the answer to our catching woes: trade Freddy Garcia to the Tigers for BRandon Inge!

Or, um, not. Like, never in a billion years not.

2004-06-18T10:19:00.000-07:00

Yankee prospects: I'm going to give it to you straight: while I'm not utterly opposed to trading Freddy Garcia, I think trading him to the Yankees is probably a very bad idea. You can judge for yourself after checking out these links, but let me just say this:

None of these guys (save Dioner Navarro, who we've covered ad nauseum) make the Baseball Prospectus' top 50 prospects list, nor even get an honorable mention. Ditto for the Hardball Times' list. And there are serious questions even about Navarro, a catcher.

So, we can trade a hot young pitcher to a dominant and hated team that has the money to sign him to a ridiculous long-term contract and damn the consequences, and we can't even get back a legitimate top-FIFTY prospect? Are you kidding? There has got to be a better option. The Mets have two prospects in BP's top 15, just traded for Richard Hidalgo, and look like they want to make a run this year. I'm not saying we could get Scott Kazmir or David Wright, but their system looks much deeper than the Yanks'. Justin Huber, a catcher, is an honorable mention guy at BP. That might be a better option -- though this Yankees prospects chat at Baseball America says Dioner is better by a wide margin.

On to the links ...

Robinson Cano: The first thing that jumps out at me from his numbers is frighteningly bad plate discipline. David Cameron, who has seen Cano play, says in this article that his throwing arm just isn't going to get it done at third base. His PECOTA card offers one or two encouraging comparisons (George Brett, Jeremy Reed) amid a veritable wasteland of washouts. He compares nicely to Bobby Valentine, which is nice, I guess, if we want a manager of the future.

Cano has a reputation as a fast starter, and indeed he is off to a good start this season. As this chat transcript with John Sickels notes, Cano was one of the prospects the Rangers could have taken to complete the A-Rod deal. They passed.

Point in his favor: Cano loves his dad. Happy Father's Day!

Eric Duncan: Just 19, Duncan is a third baseman that looks like he can hit. He's mashing at A-ball in Staten Island right now, albeit in just 59 at bats. He played high school ball at Seton Hall Prep, and forswore an offer to suit up for LSU when he was taken in the first round by the Yankees last year. Baseball America called him the best prospect in the Gulf Coast League last year.

Lots of points in his favor, but read this glowing profile which lauds, among other things, his work ethic so far as a pro. He's a few years away, but looks like a solid bet.

Brad Halsey: This season, he's off to a great start at Columbus. The Minor Yankee Blog listed him as No. 9 on the top-10 Yankee prospects list. Of course, Drew Henson was at 10, so, grain of sea-salt. Word is that he has a good change-up and doesn't give up too many long balls, but his overall numbers are uninspiring. He looks like a back-of-the-rotation guy at best.

So, that's the breakdown. We may get to see Halsey start on Saturday at Dodger Stadium, so watch that if you're interested.

Okinawa notes ... leaving Monday: Leaving on Monday for a two-week trip to Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyu Islands. I will try to blog if I can -- including pictures -- but my Internet access situation is uncertain, so posts will become less frequent (and may even halt) until I return on July 7.

2004-06-18T10:01:00.000-07:00

Garcia to Yanks rumors heat up: The NY Daily News reports that the Mariners are so interested in Robinson Cano, a 21-year-old AA infielder, that they have asked the Yanks to move him to third with an eye toward a trade.

Seattle scouts have been following the Yankees' Double-A team in Trenton recently and may have asked the Yankees to move prospect Robinson Cano from second base to third to see how he'd handle the position with an eye toward a potential trade. The Yankees are interested in Seattle righthander Freddy Garcia, who is 3-6 with a 3.23 ERA this season.

Asked if Cano had been switched for a showcase, a Yankee official would not be specific but said, "Somebody wanted to see him play third, yes. You can read into that." ...

Cano, a 21-year-old who is batting .297 with six homers and 38RBI at Trenton, played third earlier this week, the first time he's played there as a professional.

By the way, Allard Baird is also after Navarro and Cano in any deal for Carlos Beltran.

In a related story, the New York Times writes that 23-year-old Brad Halsey (who may be called up to fill Mike Mussina's spot if the Moose goes on the DL) could figure in a Garcia deal. The NYT also mentions Navarro, Jose Contreras (with most of his contract paid) and Yankee first-round pick Eric Duncan, a third baseman, as players the M's are interested in.

In a subsequent post, I'll offer some links about each of those players.

2004-06-17T13:38:00.000-07:00

In tight games in the future, I am going to write long posts whacking the Mariners who are batting in the ensuing inning. I will call this the "Spiezio home run principle."

Congrats, Scott, on your second extra-base hit this month.

2004-06-17T11:33:00.000-07:00

Sandbagging the Sand Frog: When the year began, most of the blogerati was convinced that signing Raul Ibanez was going to be a nightmare. The bloated contract, the aging player coming from a hitters' ballpark to a pitchers' park -- all the ingredients were there.

Less criticism came Bavasi's way for signing Scott Spiezio. Consensus seemed to be that this was a reasonable minor signing -- perhaps a bit of an overpay, but the grousing I saw was more "this is a low-impact move" than "albatross contract, utter disaster." Even Rob Neyer said that the $9 million contract over three years was reasonable.

Somewhat lost in the shuffle in this time of offensive emptiness is what a disastrous year this has been for Spiezio. A recent slump has driven his OBP below .300, and he's not hitting for power, either.

Come to think of it, he's not hitting much of anything. Going into today's game, he's at .228/.297./.383. In today's game, he's popped out and hit into a double play. This makes him 5 for his last 50. If you discount a 3-for-3 day he had on June 7, he's 2 for his last 47. Of those five hits, only one has been for extra bases. [Game log here.]

The explanation that makes the most sense -- other than, you know, he's not very good and he's entered the decline phase of his career -- is that the back problem we thought might require surgery is still bugging him. He's also got that oblique strain, which seems to be nagging as well.

Here's the thing, though: back problems linger. You almost never see someone just miraculously become free of them, especially later in one's career. You can put up with chronic back troubles if you've got a Scott at third base named Rolen. Spiezio, not so much.

Additionally, older players are at greater risk of injury than younger players. If the Mariner front office has learned nothing else from this season, I'd hope that the folly of relying too much on so-called "proven veterans" would be it. John Olerud's an object lesson, and I sincerely hope the plan of switching Spiezio to first base next year is being reconsidered.

People like to hold up Rich Aurilia's numbers next to Carlos Guillen's as the worst example of Three Dollar Bill's follies. I won't argue, but will add this: Bavasi's big mistake wasn't signing Aurilia. Sure, he's turned out to be awful this year, but that would have been tough to foresee. His big mistake was giving away Guillen for nothing.

If he hadn't, we'd have had a servicable left side of the infield practically no matter what. Aurilia flops? Fine. Stick Carlos back out there. Aurilia performs as expected, but Spiezio flops or gets hurt? Guillen played third last year. We'd have had options.

As it stands, it looks like we're stuck with an injury-prone, below-average player at a power position whose expensive contract will be a drain on the budget for the next three years. That limits options. It takes up a roster spot that could be used to give a shot to younger, cheaper players like Justin Leone, Bucky Jacobsen, or Greg Dobbs. And by the end of his deal, we may see Spiezio's contract hamstring the budget worse than we feared Ibanez' would.

Punch, meet Judy: We're in a National League park today, so the pitcher bats. The lineup looks like this:

Winn
Cabrera
Ichiro
Boone
Spiezio
Bocachica
Wilson
Santiago
Franklin

As I type this, Randy Winn doubles and Jolbert Cabrera hits his first homer of the year, breaking up Capuano's no-hitter and shutout. Yes, I was starting to worry.

Look at that lineup, though! At this point in the season, is there anyone you expect to get a hit when they step to the dish except Ichiro? Is there anyone who you look at other than Ichiro or Boone and think, "that player is a definite starter in the big leagues"?

It's gotten to the point where a shutout is a real possibility every time this team takes the field. That's great for the self-esteem of opposing pitchers: not so much for the ol' winning percentage.

2004-06-17T11:16:00.000-07:00

Am I seeing things, or did Chris Capuano just sit down the top of the order with SIX PITCHES? And that includes a three-pitch strikeout of Ichiro.

That's right, the Mariners' one and two hitters (Randy Winn and Jolbert Cabrera, yech!) saw a total of three pitches between them. By way of contrast, Scott Podsednik saw 10 pitches leading off the bottom of the frame for the Brew Crew -- nearly twice as many pitches as all three Mariner hitters.

Way to preach patience at all levels of the organization, guys. And remember, Cabrera is a guy Bavasi loves. Ugh.

2004-06-17T10:06:00.000-07:00

Equal link time department: Since I blogged a P-I article earlier this morning, how about this Bob Sherwin piece in the Times that has Lyle Overbay openly lobbying for a trade to the Mariners.

As I've said before, Overbay's a nice player, but I'd be very concerned about overpaying for him. His gap power might be developing, or his performance over the last year might be fluky. He slugged just over .400 in 200-some at bats last year, and is slugging over .550 this year so far.

Reason he will probably come to the Mariners: he's from Centralia.

Reason he will probably not come to the Mariners: he turned 27 in January, so he might counteract clubhouse chemistry by refusing Geritol, Matlock and hands of canasta.

Besides, with first basemen that can hit hardly in short supply, there's an issue of position scarcity to consider. For the right price, sure, I'd take Overbay. But I don't think an organization like the Brewers is gonna give up a relatively young, cheap player with talent for what I'd consider the right price.

Google search of the day: Someone found the site by searching for "Mike Myers, Mixalot, Poetry." Now that's cool.

2004-06-17T08:54:00.000-07:00

Props to the TV Critic: Yes, you read that right. John Levesque proves he gets the Mike Cameron issue in this column.

2004-06-16T12:02:00.000-07:00

Remembering Ralph: Sports and Bremertonians and Olympia Mariner also offer remembrances about Ralph Wiley.

Via Tyler at Oly Mariner, Wiley's Page 2 colleagues also remember him. I leave for Okinawa on Monday. If one of my planes goes down or I get eaten by a hammerhead shark, I hope I have had one-tenth the impact on my friends and family that he apparently did.

Tyler tells a story about being encouraged by Wiley via email. I have a similar experience, though he didn't compliment my writing. I IM'd him out of the blue with a fanboy message. He had every right to ignore me, or even play the do-you-know-who-I-am card, since he didn't know me from Adam Everett.

He didn't. He was kind and gracious. That impresses me almost as much as his body of work does, because it seems like everyone has a similar story about Ralph Wiley the man.

2004-06-16T11:06:00.000-07:00

One sheet to the wind in this series so far: No one ever likes to be shut out, but when a pitcher the quality of Ben Sheets puts the clamps down, you just have to tip your cap to him. He had that near no-hitter (which I watched, due to the magic of MLB.tv) a few weeks ago, and now authors a masterful two-hitter against the M's over seven innings.

Wait a second. You saw that wasn't Ben Sheets? It was Victor Santos?

Two questions: 1. Who is Victor Santos? and 2. How can the M's not hit against a guy who is sick and in the can between innings?

OK, one more question. How lucky are the M's that they miss the real Ben Sheets on this trip to Brewer country?

Trade rumor roundup: The Royals won't rule out trading Mike Sweeney, but it's unlikely the M's would pursue him.

The Yankees are still scouting Freddy Garcia consistently.

Carlos Guillen is bitter and enjoys rubbing his great season in the Mariners' collective face.

Three Dollar Bill Watch: What is up with people I respect writing about how Bavasi is a man "trying to save his job"?

Look, I wish it were true. I also wish I could speak seven languages, that trans-Pacific airfare was free, and that I lived on a ranch populated by Basset Hound puppies.

There's no question Bavasi did not deserve this job. In six seasons with the Angels, he never made the playoffs, and Angels fans as an aggregate (justifiably) laughed loud enough when we hired him that I could hear it up the I-5 corridor. And yes, his performance as GM so far would be laughable if it hadn't crossed that line from "funny bad" to "miserable bad."

Yes, he deserves to be fired.

But I don't see it happening, and I don't see his moves as acts of desperation. Here's why we shouldn't hold our breath waiting for the Pink Slip Delivery Service:

1. When was the last time a general manager was fired after one year -- in any case? As a corollary question, who has the shortest tenure as a GM in MLB history? I have a hard time believing that slow-to-react, give-him-a-chance-to-bring-in-his-players baseball showed anybody the door in under three years.

2. When was the last time the Mariners' front office had a shakeup? This is not an organization that, for better or for worse, acts hastily. They may not have interviewed people that I thought they should have (Paul DePodesta and Kim Ng being only the most prominent examples), but there's little doubt they got the guy they wanted. I can't see them giving up on him after one bad year. He's a Good Baseball Man, after all, with Baseball in His Blood.

3. Bavasi's efforts strike me as the moves of a deluded and misguided man who honestly believes he's doing what's best for the franchise, one who may even believe (due to 1995, his best shot to make the playoffs as a GM) that the Mariners can compete this year. He's not grasping at straws because he thinks his neck's on the line -- he really thinks that they can get back in the race this year.

If he weren't ruining my favorite team, such naivete would be charming.

In summary, I do think Bavasi will ultimately be fired. However, I think it'll take at least three years to get rid of him, and his moves might wreak havoc on the team for years beyond that.

I'd love to be wrong. Anybody want to prove me wrong? If I get some interesting replies, I'll post 'em or link to 'em.

2004-06-14T20:43:00.000-07:00

Letter of the year: My friend and former debate student Jon Helfgott has a great letter in the Seattle Times as a response to Steve Kelley's "is this really a baseball town?" column. Well worth reading.

Moore on Alaska update: Wow, that generated a lot of e-mail. Jim Moore e-mailed with a mea culpa, which is cool of him.

So let me reciprocate with one of my own: Jeremy of Sports and Bremertonians fame informs me that Cliff Lee was born in Benton, Arkansas -- so I was wrong about that. Guess the Alaska sports website I consulted got a little overzealous about claiming somebody from near their fair state in the alphabet.

And, thanks to Brian Curtis, we find the source of Moore's info. This Juneau Empire article writes that Chad Bentz is "the second player to have played either high school or American Legion baseball in Alaska to make the major leagues." In a sense, then, Moore was right: players like Josh Phelps and Curt Schilling were born in Alaska, but evidently didn't stay long.

RIP, R-dub.: Shock is the barest approximation of how I felt when I heard that Ralph Wiley had died.

I was getting out of the water from a scuba dive with my uncle when I heard the news. At best, surfacing from a dive is like a jarring return from another planet. This time, I felt as if I'd return to a planet poorer than the one I left.

Ralph Wiley was a wordsmith with a social conscience. That rubbed some people the wrong way, which is understandable: the artist's role is not just to inspire, but to provoke, to challenge. If we're convinced the world we've got is perfect, we never progress. No one begs to be reminded of social evils, but it is necessary work -- work Wiley did as well as anyone.

He told stories through the lens of sport, of film, of the arts. He brought a polymath's touch to his writing that made me appreciate pastimes (like boxing) about which I truly couldn't care less. Those long, flowing lines with their incisive asides, thrown off with what seemed like no effort, made me aspire to write better, to know more, to be more.

The Road Dog has traveled on to the most mysterious place there is. Safe travels, R-dub. I will miss you.

2004-06-11T10:14:00.000-07:00

My daily nitpick: From Jim Moore:

I'm sorry, until yesterday, I could not name a single Expo. But now I can -- Chad Bentz, left-handed relief pitcher from Juneau, just the second player from Alaska to make it to the big leagues.

It should surprise no one that Moore (running second to KJR's Mitch Levy in the coveted "local sports media figure who knows the least about sports" award) could not name a single Expo. But he's never heard of Curt Schilling or Josh Phelps?

Not only have more than two Alaskans made the big leagues, there are more than two in the big leagues right now. Besides Schilling and Phelps, there's Shawn Chacon (Anchorage), Cliff Lee (Benton) and a few others.

2004-06-11T08:29:00.000-07:00

The New York Post reports that the Mariners have a scout watching Jose Contreras. Why? What possible interest could we have in him? The mind boggles.

2004-06-09T22:30:00.000-07:00

Not sick, dead or in jail, and not even overtaken with disheartenment due to the terrible team -- just really busy preparing for my trip to Okinawa on June 21. Just time for a quick note now:

There is much of interest in this Newsday article from today calling for the Yanks to go get Freddy. Two of the interesting things make Bavasi look really, really foolish in my eyes.

-- The piece quotes Bavasi as saying the selloff won't start for another week or so, as he waits for a team that hasn't scored a run in over 20 innings to crawl back in the race. Um, good luck with that.

-- Bavasi also says of Freddy: "He might be the best pitcher in our league." Fine, give him a pass for this one if you want to believe he's just trying to increase trade value for his hottest commodity. The thing is, he might believe it, which would be the last nail in the coffin of his objective talent evaluation credibility. I like Freddy more than most M's fans. Best pitcher in the league? Last year, he wasn't even the best second-pitcher on his own staff.

But the most intriguing bits to me come where the writer, Jon Heyman, lists players the Mariners might be after. Dioner Navarro, of course, we know about. Please ignore the awful, confusing sentence structure in this excerpt, though, and just take in the info:

While most Yankees minor-league talent is far from the bigs, such as outfielder Rudy Guillen, pitchers Chien-Ming Wang, Sean Henn and Matt DeSalvo and third baseman Eric Duncan, and a Mariners exec called "folly" the reported notion they'd trade for Contreras, that same exec didn't rule them out entirely.

If I'm translating correctly, that means the "M's exec" is laughing off the Contreras rumors -- that's good -- but not ruling out trading for some of these low-grade prospects that aren't within shouting distance of major league baseball -- that's bad.

Of course, one could also interpret that sentence to mean "he called the notion that they're after Contreras 'folly,' but wouldn't rule anything out entirely, including trading for Contreras." Let's hope that's incorrect.

2004-06-07T08:55:00.000-07:00

I've just got one thing to say about last night's win:

2004-06-04T09:32:00.000-07:00

Via USS Mariner comes news from the New York Times that the M's are interested in Jose Contreras. If true, this is utterly nonsensical. The rumor is that we'll give up a 27 year old starter with a reasonable contract for a 30+ starter (his age isn't listed in the story, and let's be honest, no one knows how old he really is anyway) with a bloated contract.

The more interesting portion of the article -- to me, anyway -- is that the Yankees have asked about Mike Myers. As far as I'm concerned, they can have him. The question is what we'd get in return.

We'd need a lot more than Dioner Navarro for Freddy, and the Yankees don't have a lot more to offer. They'd want a lot more than Mike Myers for Navarro, who is their last real tradable prospect. I don't think I see a match here. At least I hope I don't.

On an unrelated note: Are you the parent of a female high school debater? If so, send her to the Women's Debate Institute, a low-cost camp put on by a bunch of sharp debate minds. I've been involved with this camp for four years now, and it rocks.

2004-06-03T11:13:00.000-07:00

Nothing Says Baseball Like A Dead Egghead Kraut: According to German philosopher G.W.F. Hegel, human thought moves through several stages. An initial idea (thesis) is met with consideration, contradiction and critique (antithesis). Completing a tripartite move, this information is integrated into a synthesis, a higher level of knowledge that transcends the original data.

Having established that my $40,000 in student loans produced something, let's play everyone's favorite game show based on an epistemological treatise -- thesis, antithesis, synthesis.

Thesis: Larry Stone's column today says that the Mariners may not get much for Freddy Garcia. The most incisive quote Stone gleans from an anonymous GM is:

"The more money he makes, the less value he has," said another. "Not many teams are willing to pick up the money. If you get two prospects, one would be definite, one mild. You're not going to get more than that."

Save possibly Bret Boone, Garcia is the Mariners' best potential trade chip. It appears, though, that his contract dollars and contract status might prevent the M's from getting top-tier prospect talent for the future.

Antithesis: Bill Bavasi said on the post-game show last night that the Mariners haven't thrown up the white flag yet, are still trying to get back into the race, and still have a hearty chunk of the Sasaki money available to acquire a player -- if they're in the hunt. Left unsaid was what happens to that money if they aren't.
Additionally, he reported that they'll try to re-sign Garcia, but not until after the year ends. They don't want to distract him during the year, even though he acknowledged that letting his contract expire could result in paying more money to re-sign a newly free agent Garcia.

Synthesis: We have a pot of money that we'll use if we get back into the race. We have a pitcher that won't get a top-tier prospect in trade because of his expensive contract. Let's synthesize this information (without the aid of a Casio keyboard), shall we?

The Mariners could either:

-- Offer to pay some or all of Garcia's contract if a team like the White Sox will give up a truly blue chip prospect. We win because the difference between Aaron Rowand or Joe Borchard and Jeremy Reed is (in my eyes) significant. They win because they fill a need without taking on too much payroll. And let's be real: the only drawback would be us spending money that likely wouldn't get put back into next year's payroll anyway.

-- Or, as Stone suggests, use the Sasaki money as seed funds to sign Garcia. If we're out of the race (we are) and if we truly can't get decent value in return for Freddy Garcia (as Stone suggests), it doesn't make sense to let him get to free agency. We either lose him for nothing or pay too much for him.

Obviously, these two courses of action are mutually exclusive. Ultimately, the decision depends on how much you can get for Freddy.

But it's a decision that has to be made soon, so it's in the M's best interests to do some Hegelian synthesis ASAP.

2004-06-02T23:57:00.000-07:00

Highlights from the Bavasi interview on last night's post-game show:

* They've had deals for Gil Meche offered to them by two separate teams, but felt that the value they'd get back for Meche wasn't as high as Gil himself. This might or might not be true -- hard to say without knowing the details -- but it somewhat disturbed me to hear him continually refer to Meche as a "prospect."

* Not one, but two people called in and told Bill that he was "doing a great job" and the Mariners were "lucky to have him." Hey, I can see their point. Well, except for that whole turning a 93 win team into a 100 loss team thing. Honestly, why is it so many people feel they have to suck up to people in positions of power all the time? This almost made me call in to say "Bill, I think you're doing a plain awful job, and here's why," but The Lovely Wife vetoed that course of action.

Incidentally, one of the "attaboy, Bill" callers asked what the latest was about the Mariners moving to the National League.

* He kept up the absurd "we're trying to get back in the race" line, and really seemed to believe it. Said they'd like to re-sign Freddy, but are going to wait until after the season, because in-season negotiations might distract him.

For the record, I want us to re-sign Freddy. But if he can be rattled that easily, can you really rely on him? And would rattling a free agent in his walk year really be such a bad financial strategy? Mostly kidding about that last one.

* Assured the listeners that we would be players on major free agents in the offseason. Wanted to call in and ask why we should believe him in the wake of our non-pursuit of Vladimir Guerrero (who had NINE runs batted in that night).

* As much as said "no" to the Aaron Boone rumors (good!), saying that he felt Boone's right-handed pull stroke wouldn't do well in Safeco.

* When I saw DMZ's comments about Ben Christensen, I kicked myself for not calling in and asking why Bavasi signed him.

2004-06-02T08:49:00.000-07:00

Ho-hum. Another painful loss. About par for the course this year, huh?

Others have been following the Mariners' attendance patterns closer than I. I'll try to pull together a post with links to all of that info soon, but for now, check this: last night was the sparsest attendance at a Safeco Field game since the park opened in 1999. Bodes ill.

Garcia Market Watch: The Star-Tribune thinks the Twins should offer Michael Restovich and Grant Balfour to the Mariners for Garcia or Guardado.

Al Leiter's health may determine the fervor with which the Mets pursue Garcia.

Greg Johns turnabout update: If you're scoring at home: This team is good thanks to Bill Bavasi's moves; No it isn't; This team could still be good if they get some wins; OK, this team is bad, but it's not Bill Bavasi's fault; and the latest installment, break this team up now.

I kinda hope they win three games in a row so we can get a "Let's not be too hasty" column.

2004-06-01T11:12:00.000-07:00

Peter Gammons thinks Bret Boone will be traded. From yesterday's chat:

Hartford, CT: Will Seattle really trade Bret Boone before the end of the season? And where would he go? Logic says the Yankees will be goign after him but do they have anything that Seattle would be interested in trade-wise? Who else would be a contender for Boone if he is put out as trade bait?

Peter Gammons: I think Boone will be traded. I think the Yankees will be contenders. Dioneer Navarro is a young catcher that the Yankees have and the Ms could use. But, the Yankees may have to use him to go after a pitcher like Freddy Garcia. As for Boone, I would think the Cardinals, Cubs and Dodgers would all have interest.

We've heard the Dioner Navarro rumor before, of course. It's interesting that Gammons would say so definitively that Boone will be traded, however.

Also from the chat (and this sounds like bunk to me):

Steve Z, Pittsburgh, PA: A rumor is circulating which has Texas shopping Mark Teixeira, presumably for pitching help. My questions: Is there any truth to the rumor? If true, why would the Rangers want to make such a silly trade? Finally, what would the Rangers want in return? Thanks.

Peter Gammons: I don't think Teixeira will get traded but b/c his agent is Scott Boras, he is the one young player who declined to sign a long term contract. The Rangers seem to be attempting to purge themselves of Boras clients after fiascos with Chan Ho Park, A-Rod and Todd VanPoppel. Teixeira is potentially a great hitter, but the Rangers know they need very good starting pitching, and Teixeira is there (sic) most tradable player.

No way this is true. Teixeira is a cornerstone player, Boras client or not. But if it is true, you'd have to think there would be a feeding frenzy to deal for him, right?

2004-06-01T10:21:00.000-07:00

Trade rumors: According to Ken Rosenthal:

The Mariners have informed clubs that they are "open to anything," according to two major league executives. That means the M's would field offers not only for RHP Freddy Garcia, but also 2B Bret Boone, RHP Gil Meche and possibly RHP Joel Piniero.

This isn't much different from what we've been hearing so far, but the fact that two major league executives confirm it signals that the flat-out shopping of everyone has begun. Also from that article:

The White Sox represent another possible trade partner for the Mariners. G.M. Ken Williams badly wants to add a starting pitcher, but he likely would want Seattle to assume at least part of Garcia's $6.875 million salary and include a young player if the Sox were to part with a major league-ready outfield prospect like Joe Borchard or Jeremy Reed.

David Cameron at USS Mariner, knowing I covet Reed, e-mailed me earlier this year to throw cold water on this rumor. He notes that teams rarely, if ever, trade their No. 1 rated prospects, especially for a rent-a-player like Garcia.

This passage piques my curiosity, though. What if the Mariners -- who have cash to burn -- picked up a healthy hunk of Freddy's contract and threw in a younger pitcher? I'd blanche if we acquired Borchard, but for Reed, that could be a sweet deal given the dearth of position player prospects in the system. They get Freddy, a young pitcher, and cash they can use to re-sign Garcia or Magglio Ordonez. Sure, it's a longshot, but it's something you have to investigate.

[There's also an interesting note in that Rosenthal article about George Sherrill. Read on, it's near the bottom.]

Another team that makes sense to approach for a Garcia deal is Minnesota, as Peter Gammons recently wrote. Lots of young bats, no room for all of 'em.

2004-06-01T08:50:00.000-07:00

Character: Ever since the Mariners signed Ben Christensen, there's been an outpouring of (justified) outrage. How could an organization that prides itself on only pursuing quality people acquire a headhunter who ruined a man's career, and could easily have killed him?

I share this outrage. But I think something that has been missed is that Bill Bavasi doesn't appear to share the organization's desire to pursue exclusively players with squeaky-clean images. Consider:

* Though it's tough to put stock into rumors, the Mariners were consistently reported to be among the five teams trying to sign noted prickly personality Raul Mondesi.

* The reason the M's didn't go after Milton Bradley, you'll recall, was not "character issues," but because Bavasi didn't think the roster needed an offensive upgrade and Melvin didn't think he could break into the team's outfield.

Yes, this is a small sample size. Back in the day, though, could you see the M's even giving Mondesi the sniff test?

I spoke too soon: Greg Johns busts out a fallacy-laden column defending Bavasi against second-guessers. And while the larger point of the column is well taken -- that baseball surprises everybody -- it's also full of half-truths and distortions. I'm sick of line-by-line nitpicking, so I'll just say this.

Bill Bavasi has been a major-league general manager for seven years including this season. Barring a catastrophic earthquake along the San Andreas fault that deposits California squarely in the ocean while the Rangers are on a west coast swing, this will be the seventh year his teams have failed to make the playoffs.

In business, that gets you fired. In baseball, it means you're a "veteran executive with experience."

Of course, this is just the latest Johns waffle. If you're scoring at home, Bavasi's great! But the team stinks! Though it's not Bavasi's fault, you fantasy-league geek!

Shameless Jeff-promotion: Timely new article about a bill affecting the Western Shoshone Nation that could come up for a vote in Congress this week. New hiking article, too, about Lake Padden park and off-leash areas near Bellingham.

2004-05-28T14:57:00.000-07:00

The plan is ... there is no plan: I don't think anyone saw this coming.

Yes, McCracken has no business being in the major leagues. But if Bavasi thought McCracken sucked -- which he does -- why did he trade for him, and pick up his near $2 million contract? Ye gods and little fishies. This ship has no rudder.

I'm not sure whether trading for Q in the first place or designating him for assignment hurts my faith in Bavasi more. The first move didn't make any sense, but fit the organizational blueprint of "nice enough guy, smart, gets along with everybody." This move ... well, the positive spin would be "Bavasi recognized he made a mistake." The realistic spin is "He has no idea what he's doing, and he's just throwing stuff at the wall now."

Want to hear the negative spin? I know you do. The negative spin is that they want to showcase Nageotte for a potential ill-advised trade.

I fear this team is well on its way to becoming Tampa Bay West.

2004-05-28T12:19:00.000-07:00

The TV Critic strikes again. James at Trident Fever points out that John Levesque's recent criticism of the team belies his initial outlook, one where he cast aspersions at the team's critics.

One other note I'd like to add, and can't believe I missed at the time: in that April 2 column, Levesque says that despite worries about Scott Spiezio's defense at third base, "Spiezio this spring has been a human Maginot Line at third base." In context, it's clear Levesque means that as a compliment.

Which it isn't. The French built the Maginot Line, a fortified barrier, as a defense against the Germans in World War II. But those ingenious Germans just marched around it.

Today, the Maginot Line is used as a metaphor for a shortsighted, failed policy by most every writer other than The TV Critic.

2004-05-28T08:47:00.000-07:00

Break up the M's: So says Tony DeMarco on MSNBC.com.

I can say two things with certainty: I'm not the only one around here reading the Will Carroll Weblog, and when I'm in Japan, I'm finding somebody to teach me to throw the gyroball.

Baseless speculation: From this article in the Philly Daily News:

The Rockies are hoping outfielder Preston Wilson makes a strong return from the disabled list. That could create a trade market, allowing general manager Dan O'Dowd some payroll flexibility for next season. The Mets and Mariners could have some interest.

Point the first: I really hate it when writers do this type of speculation without attribution. Does this mean he's heard that the Mariners could have some interest? Or that he, the author, thinks it makes sense for them to have interest? Two very different things.

Either way, I don't want Preston Wilson.

Not to be the Mariner Pessimist, but: With Pedro, Wakefield and Schilling set to take the hill against us, is anyone not predicting a sweep?

2004-05-27T07:24:00.000-07:00

Three in a row: And that means we're 60 percent of the way to having the Optimist back.

Wright is still wrong: Bill Madden from the NY Daily News says the Mets are looking for pitching, and are looking at Freddy Garcia. However, he quotes Fred Wilpon thusly:

"We're looking. Believe me, we're looking," Wilpon said last night. "But the first name everybody brings up is (third base super prospect) David Wright and that is something we'd never do. What we really need is someone from our own organization to step up."

Find Cleveland's path from competitiveness to rebuilding interesting? Larry Stone says we might be seeing something similar here. But it looks like we'll have to rebuild with prospects other than David Wright.

Don't worry, though. Bavasi has found the answer. Abraham Nunez. (Second item)

Abraham Nunez? A 27-year-old outfielder who hits singles in AAA, and doesn't hit much of anything in the show? When I voted, 51 percent of voters in this P-I poll said "yes, trade Freddy." Unfortunately, there wasn't a "but not for Abraham Nunez" option.

For the record, Edgar Martinez does not want to be traded.

Hickey math update: Mike Thompson from the P-I blog informs me that they've fixed the mathematical snafu I snarked about. Hey, it's cool. I was an English major, too.

Speaking of My Favorite Reactionary, he reports that the Mondesi rumors won't go away. Ugh.

2004-05-26T18:11:00.000-07:00

What I was thinking after Ichiro homered: 1. Cool.

2. The broadcasters said to begin the game that Steve Nelson was the "Million Dollar Baseball Magic" contestant, and if any Mariner hits for the cycle, said contestant wins ... a free steak, as if he hit the Durham Bull. Or something.

Anyway, whether it is or is not "our" Steve, I hope Ichiro triples in his next at bat.

2004-05-26T15:49:00.000-07:00

The New York Times also says the Mets are interested in Freddy Garcia, but it appears he's a second-tier option behind Jason Schmidt from their perspective. That assumes Schmidt's arm doesn't explode like a pinata at an ADD kid's birthday party, though.

2004-05-26T08:11:00.000-07:00

Trade rumors: John McGrath of the News-Tribune supports trading Freddy to the Mets for prospects. The prospect he salivates over is a 21-year-old AA third baseman named David Wright.

Memo to general manager Bill Bavasi: Dance with the Mets. Demand that Wright be the main man in a Garcia trade that would also include one of the two offensive-minded catchers in the Mets' system (Justin Huber or Mike Jacobs). Oh, and just for fun, ask for one of their promising young minor-league outfielders, a group that includes Victor Diaz, Craig Brozell, Prentice Redman and Esix Snead.

Oh, and Bill: you should be fired for driving this team into the ground so far we'd need the world's largest Phillips head to get us out.

Okay, that last line wasn't McGrath, that was me. But here's some information about Wright: he's ranked No. 5 on Baseball Prospectus' prospect list; The Hardball Times has him at 16; here's a Baseball America "Prospect Pulse" that raves about him; and a John Sickels "Down on the Farm" column that is very high on him, saying "Wright is just now getting the attention he deserves as a top prospect. I think he will be a mainstay in Shea Stadium eventually." Sickels puts his ETA at late 2004, early 2005.

This is definitely something I would investigate. While the Mets have been clear about not wanting to give up Scott Kazmir, I haven't seen them rule out a trade for Wright. And while his career batting average in the minors is unimpressive (in the .270s), 1. he's young; 2. he has plate discipline; 3. he's reportedly a fine defensive player; and 4. he took a real step forward in power this past year.

I'm not at all convinced that Freddy would get us Wright. But I'd take him if I could get him.

Ken Williams is open about 1. wanting to make a deal ASAP, and 2. to bring in Freddy Garcia or possibly Kris Benson. This is causing some unease in the White Sox clubhouse, apparently.

Personally, my only unease comes from the fear that Bavasi will ask for Jose Valentin in return.

Ted Sillanpaa of the Fairfield Daily Republic wants the Giants to get Rich Aurilia back from the M's.

The Seattle Mariners wish they'd passed on shortstop Rich Aurilia. The rumor is that they are trying to trade him back to a National League. The Giants should've signed Aurilia and kept him last winter. They can rectify that error now.

I think I speak for all of M's Nation when I say: Ted, we wish you were the Giants' GM.

Last night's game: Two good things, one bad thing from last night. First: they won. Let's not take this for granted. Second, I'm thrilled Bob Melvin's decision not to make Ichiro bunt in the 12th inning worked out. If the result had been a double play, I'd have blanched -- anything that encourages Melvin to abandon the "give up an out strategy" is good.

The bad news is that our best reliever is still apparently our last resort.

More Hickey Math: Okay, I let John Hickey skate a little bit for this one, since it required some actual calculation, and I figured he might have left the abacus at home. But how can you explain this, from today's Notebook?

Ichiro Suzuki, a career .390 hitting during the month of May, is doing himself one better this time around. He comes into tonight 37-for-95 (.390) for the month.

So he's a career .390 hitter (not hitting, ahem) in May. This May he's doing even better! He's hitting .390!

How does this get by a copy editor?

In closing: The Strident Preppy goes hard after M's management in his P-I column. think it's safe to say we're all frustrated by this team.

2004-05-25T19:08:00.000-07:00

I was just about to write a "gotta give credit where it's due" post about Willie Bloomquist having the presence of mind to steal third base off Jose Jimenez, getting a tremendous jump.

Then he makes an ill-advised choice to come home on a routine grounder, with the infield drawn in, no less. Oy.

Sidenote: Dan Wilson was nearly out at first. When's the last time you saw a first-to-home-to-first double play where the catcher had to tag someone out?

To the bottom of the 11th we go. And where is Every Fifth Day Eddie?

2004-05-25T14:33:00.000-07:00

I would link to Scott Engel's new Sportsline column about possible Mariner trades, but it doesn't contain any real information -- just trolls through the roster and speculates inanely. ("Veteran outfielder Quinton McCracken could also be dealt, but he might be a reserve for any other team he joins.") Ya think?

Oh well, I linked to it anyway. Why not?

2004-05-25T10:41:00.000-07:00

Link grab bag: Both the Boston Globe and ESPN Insider report that the M's are among five teams pursuing Raul Mondesi. What? They're going to break the "we only go after good guys" rule for a broken-down outfielder who just quit in the middle of a season, hits right-handed and only plays hard every other Thursday between five and seven in the evening?

C'mon, Angels, Cardinals, Red Sox and Dodgers!

The Portland Tribune speculates on Edgar's potential retirement.

Kerry Wood will miss more time than originally thought, which the Chicago Sun-Times uses to fuel the Freddy rumors.

Okay, so the Mariners stink. But according to Baseball Prospectus' (premium) adjusted standings, they ... stink.

2004-05-25T07:14:00.000-07:00

Today's P-I says there's no quick fix for the M's. So what do they need? One answer in the story is interesting:

What do the Mariners need in return?

"They really need to address their defense," an eastern AL general manager said. "They have good pitchers, but they don't have strikeout pitchers, so they need to have guys who can go and get the ball. That's why I was surprised they let (center fielder Mike) Cameron and (shortstop Carlos) Guillen go.

"Sure, Cameron struck out a lot. But he walked, he hit for power in a tough park for hitters and he ran the bases good. Most of all, he caught anything hit in the air to center. I feel for Randy Winn, because it's going to be hard to look good with people remembering all the catches that Cameron would make."

That's exactly right, isn't it? And did you catch who said that? "An eastern AL general manager."

One thing that frightens me is that three of the five AL East GMs would be smart enough to recognize that right away -- Theo Epstein, Brian Cashman, and J.P. Ricciardi. I don't know much about the two-headed monster of Jim Beattie and Mike Flanagan in Baltimore, but the only GM that clearly didn't say this is Chuck LaMar.

This frightens me, because it shows how far behind the M's are. Something that is as obvious as breathing to at least three-fifths of AL East GMs escaped the M's front office. Uh oh.

There's also an interesting morsel in there where an AL West scout says that "Seattle management wants to make money ... but winning is obviously not that crucial to them." Ouch.

Up is still down, film at 11: According to this TNT glowing story about Dan Wilson, this year:

Wilson's biggest contributions have come behind the plate - not at it.

No numbers are offered in support of this assertion. I wonder why?

Trade rumor roundup: We know that the Pale Hose revere Freddy Garcia the way the Germans love David Hasselhoff, but this is the first suggestion I've found that they also admire Jamie Moyer. It's a brief throwaway reference, and totally unlikely to matter in the long term given Jamie's 10 and 5 rights, but I thought it was worth noting.

They're interested in Rich Aurilia, Freddy Garcia and Ichiro, right? They sent scouts to our games, right? Then how many times have the Cubs talked trade with the M's about a trade? Apparently zero.

Hadn't heard the Mets mentioned as a trade market player before, but this article says they covet Freddy and might be interested in Meche, too. I found this passage from the breakout box amusing [emphasis added]:

Mariners (15-28): Ready to dismantle, with Ichiro Suzuki the only untouchable, but Seattle is expected to demand top young position players in return for RHPs Freddy Garcia (a free agent after this year) and Gil Meche. LHP Jamie Moyer would need to approve a trade. OF Raul Ibanez and 3B Scott Spiezio should be available.

Yes, they should. Should they ever!

2004-05-23T12:11:00.000-07:00

Media Pile On The M's: Well, they've lost Newnham now, too. His latest calls for wholesale changes to the M's roster, and includes advocating calling up virtually everyone from the minor leagues.

You get the feeling reading this that he just looked at a list of minor leaguers and started rattling them off. "We should call up. Nageotte. And Blackley. And Madritsch. And Jose Lopez. And Leone. And Bucky. And Jamal Strong. And ..." Way to cover your bases, there, Blaine.

There's also the required-by-city-statute call to "give Willie Bloomquist a real chance." A real chance to do what, embarass himself?

I covered the feeding frenzy among local coumnists a few weeks back, but the real opinion-making media has now chimed in. No, not Newnham. I'm talking about The Missoulian. Mocked by Montana, too.

Chatter Continues: Chicagoland has fallen in love with Freddy Garcia from afar. He's the answer, says White Sox Central.

Speaking of the White Sox, I have been watching lots of their broadcasts, lately on MLB.tv, and the two most painful things about the service both come from Pale Hose games. You get:

1. The Giordano's deep dish pizza ads, which are mouthwatering and make me jealous every time I see some of that cheesy goodness; and

2. Hawk Harrelson's abysmal, contrived catchphrases. Shouting "He Gone!" after a strikeout is bad enough, but his home run call is the worst I've ever heard. After a intro of "You can put it on the board ..." be joins his broadcast partner in a chorus of "YES!" Reminds of the guys in high school who had absurd, choreographed secret handshakes.

Hawk's also the only broadcaster I've seen who makes a habit of regularly chattering to the hitter. "C'mon, Joe, get ahold of one now," etc. If you think Fairly is a homer, you ain't heard nothin'.

2004-05-22T01:20:00.000-07:00

John Sickels has a colum where he discusses Shin-Soo Choo. Count me in as a Choo Believer.

2004-05-22T00:48:00.000-07:00

No runs. Against Nate Robertson, Al Levine and Oogie Urbina.

Now, you understand why the Optimist threw up his hands. I give up.

2004-05-21T08:57:00.000-07:00

RumorFilter: Now this is interesting. Paul Hagen of the Philadelphia News reports that those two Cubs scouts were not in town to watch Rich Aurilia -- Dusty Baker has denied any interest in him -- but to watch Freddy Garcia.

This could simply be erroneous reporting. In the paragraph above that blurb, he basically repeats verbatim the Larry LaRue rumors from a week ago.

But with Mark Prior's status still up in the air and Kerry Wood now on the DL, this rumor might be lent more credence than I would have given it a few weeks ago. You'd think that the last thing the Cubs would need is another starting pitcher, though -- what do they do when all of their guys are healthy?

Irresponsible speculation department: does this mean that the "Prior's coming back" talk is so much bluster, and they're more bearish on his injuries than they're letting on?

Call it Shaw's Law of Fantasy Sports: When your favorite team is stinking up the joint, and you want nothing more than for them to play an opposing pitcher like a video game, they will do so against a pitcher recently acquired by your fantasy team. Thanks, Rodrigo Lopez!

Just wait 'til next year: When Orlando Cabrera will be a free agent. Ken Rosenthal lists the Mariners as possible suitors, and I've got to think that makes sense given what we know about club tendencies. Here's why.

[I'm going to steal the checklist gimmick from Steve here, for a couple of reasons: first, who better to steal from?; second, it's payback for scaring the soul out of me with the LoDuca speculation; and third, I don't want him to shoot that dog.]

* Cabrera turns 30 this year, meaning he's officially a Veteran Player.

* He's a skilled player, but a hacktastic one whose superficial stats are impressive. Cabrera's career on-base-percentage is a mere .316.

* The Mariners can point to his career-year, 2003 (.297/.347/.460), as expected performance instead of an outlier.

Not enough to cement our pursuit of him, but as the Magic 8-Ball might say, "signs point to yes." And no, that's not a good thing.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence: But I still think this is funny.

2004-05-21T08:44:00.000-07:00

I'm between two rocks and three hard places as far as work goes, so not much time today.

For my Okinawa trip, I'm doing a writeup for a scuba magazine based in Singapore. We're talking about what type of articles I'm gonna do for them, and he sends me an email that says, effectively, "I'll get back to you next week. Have fun in Washington. Gonna check out a Mariners game this weekend?"

No, he hasn't seen the blog. I don't think. It's nice to know that word of the M's miserable failures hasn't spread all the way around the world. Yet.

I'll be there at the end of June, though, so it will by then.

2004-05-20T15:56:00.000-07:00

First they lose the fans. Then they lose the media. In between, they lose a bunch of games. Now, they lose the Optimist.

Actually, we lose the Optimist. Pity.

I will miss Corey's posts. And I say that because I am certain he won't be back until next year. Read his post for why.

2004-05-20T12:29:00.000-07:00

I don't intend to make a habit of these short, link-only posts, but there's little I can add to this fascinating story about Babe Ruth, a bar-cum-strip club (hee hee), historical preservation and urban development. But mostly Babe Ruth.

And scope this morsel from Bob Sherwin's Times story, emphasis added:

Added Jolbert Cabrera: "After a start like this, it's hard to come out of it. But believe me, everyone is trying, maybe too hard."

Cabrera used his sixth-inning at-bat as the example. The Orioles broke a scoreless tie in the top of the sixth on a run-scoring double by Melvin Mora. In the bottom of the inning, Ichiro opened with a walk. Cabrera was looking for a bunt sign to move Ichiro over. He didn't get it.

"Because I was swinging the bat well lately, he (Bob Melvin) told me to go ahead. I got a good swing and I don't know how I missed that pitch," said Cabrera, who fouled out to the catcher. "I might have tried too hard there, instead of a nice easy swing. I tried to hit it out of the ballpark."

It's the sixth inning. You're down by one run. The top of the order is up, and your leadoff man gets on board.

And the number two hitter is convinced, utterly convinced, that the manager wants him to bunt in that situation. So convinced, in fact, that when the sign doesn't come, he's shocked and flustered.

What can you say?

2004-05-20T11:58:00.000-07:00

Weirdly, the new blogger decided to put my new post below one I wrote several hours ago.

It's all good, though, I wanted to plug this Will Carroll piece on Baseball Prospectus [premium only] anyway. Will rips Bill Plaschke for still another outmoded and antiquated column. Just right.

2004-05-20T08:39:00.001-07:00

Solid journalism: It's bad enough to trot out the "he changed leagues" excuse for Rich Aurilia's struggles, but check this out:

The shortstop's learning curve has been steep, as anyone who has watched the Mariners this season can attest. He entered last night batting just .234 -- 48 points below the .278 average he had in nine seasons with the National League San Francisco Giants.

I'm not a math major either. But 234 + 48 is 282, not 278. Rich will probably be batting .230 soon enough, but let's not apply that to him yet, hmm?

Google Searches Redux: People continue to find the site by looking for "bikini appendectomy," which is a bit unnerving, but whatever floats your boat.

Note to the guy who was searching for "ric+flair+woohoo!+sound+files": first, Ric Flair doesn't say "Woohoo!" He says "Whoo!" Homer Simpson says "Woohoo!" You might find what you're looking for here, though.

Weirdly, someone got here from the French Ministry of the Environment website. I don't know how that happened. Why did they visit the site? Rumors that they want to surrender to me are unsubstantiated, but since I like art and a nice Bordeaux, confirmation would be welcome.

2004-05-20T08:39:00.000-07:00

Three-dollar Bill, Motivational Speaker: Remember that "pep talk" that Bavasi was supposed to have given John Olerud as an antidote to rumors about his trade/release/benching?

Olerud met with general manager Bill Bavasi on Tuesday for something of a pep talk. And while Bavasi didn't tell the Seattle native to start packing, Olerud didn't exactly come away encouraged.

Someone asked Olerud last night if he felt more secure after the talk. He paused. And paused some more.

"I don't know," he said. "I don't know."

How is this a pep talk, exactly? Is this a Matt Foley-esque "start hitting or live in a van down by the river" chat? Or was Olerud told that the team needs someone younger and more athletic, like Jolbert Cabrera? [scroll down for the Cabrera bit]

Mora the Same: The lede to this AP game story is hilarious.

The Baltimore Orioles' rotation, which was supposed to be their weakness, is starting to sparkle.

It's curious, isn't it, how that sparklage has coincided with a West Coast swing to the Emerald City? I don't know about you, but whenever I see a young pitcher looking for his first major-league win -- as Erik Bedard was last night -- I assume it's going to come against My Seattle Mariners.

Poetry News: "Bill Nevins, a New Mexico high school teacher and personal friend, was fired last year and classes in poetry and the poetry club at Rio Rancho High School were permanently terminated. It had nothing to do with obscenity, but it had everything to do with extremist politics."

It's not even about extremist politics. The principal of this school is a Bush backer, which is fine. But he decides to censor student poetry and art critical of the President, which is most assuredly not fine. Worse, he fired or threatened with termination teachers who blanched at censoring the kids' work.

Before I read the story, I assumed one of the kids had crossed an important line, using excessive profanity or making a threat. This appears not to be the case: it appears to be one freak on an anti-First Amendment rampage, bent on punishing at least one teacher (likely more) and several students who disagree with him politically.

Having worked in high schools before, I can testify that a certain portion of the staff (a small minority) are there because they want to exercise power over those weaker than they are. This principal seems like the worst example of such a person -- he doesn't like what a few kids wrote, so now no kids at that high school get to learn about poetry. How vile.

[via MeFi.]

2004-05-19T12:58:00.000-07:00

Wednesday is media criticism day: In case you hadn't noticed, apparently every Mariner fan is pining away for Rafael Palmeiro. So says The TV Critic, who spurns this imagined love for ViagraMan. Get over it, he says! It's never going to happen!

Wow, I'm glad The TV Critic threw cold water on that flame. Because if this season has taught us anything, it's that we need another old player. Every fan I talk to thinks that getting Palmeiro would have fixed everything.

Seriously, this is the first I've heard of any tooth-gnashing over Palmeiro. Where does he come up with this stuff? The column implies that readers write to him in tears over this. Who are these people?

On the plus side, My Favorite Reactionary had a just-right post yesterday, ripping Melvin's bunt-o-centrism, perverse bullpen patterns, and "veteran players" that make excuses for not being able to hit rookies. Plus, he uses the term "dreadfully boring" to describe this team. Which it is, sad to say.

Buy me some peanuts and ... Crunch n' Munch? Another reason to hate the Yankees.

2004-05-19T06:53:00.000-07:00

Dear Steve Kelley:

Hey. How's it going. Been a while. OK, actually, we don't know each other. In fact, you have no idea who I am. But that's beside the point.

The point is, I'm a big fan. OK, I'm not. But there are things I admire about you. The publication you write for, for example. And your hair. Of course, your hair.

So, while we normally disagree on many things baseball-related, [insert insincere line about mutual respect for each other's intelligent opinions here before sending letter]. As Aristotle said, "come, let us reason together."

For instance, there's your column today. Hey, look! Over there! Off in the trees! It's a point of agreement. The Mariners, you write, should not be hasty to trade Garcia, potentially their most valuable chip. Right you are, Steve. Kudos! Megadittos!

So why do have to go and do a thing like this? In explaining to readers why Garcia wants to play for the Yankees, you write:

Garcia's night-lifestyle has filled long hours of programming on sports talk shows, as if he were as wild as Paris Hilton or any member of Metallica. He has been ripped by sportswriters for his lack of preparation between starts and his lapses in concentration during starts.

See, for honesty's sake, Steve, your next sentence might have been: "And, by 'sportswriters,' I mean me."

That's right, that link shows a local sportswriter ripping Garcia, declaring that he deserved to be booed by fans, and suggesting that he's "more interested in night life" than "night games" and would rather be "a big-time party animal" than a big league ace. And, my friend, that sportswriter has the most incredible column-mug hair in Seattle.

That matters little, however. In today's America, hypocrisy is just the name of Calvin Klein's next fragrance for men. Old-fashioned as I am, I thought it merited some attention.

But here's the kicker, the part of your article that wrenched my eyes away from that column mug.

Freddy Garcia will be the first serious test for general manager Bill Bavasi. The future of the Mariners will depend on how quickly Bavasi can restructure the everyday lineup. What he does with Garcia will give us our first look at his grand plan.

Wasn't the "first serious test" the total overhaul he gave this team in the offseason? Surely you remember the giveaway of Carlos Guillen (you wrote about it in the Garcia link); surely you remember the McCracken trade, the overpaying for Raul Ibanez and Scott Spiezio?

I know you remember how he forced Bob Melvin to keep Kevin Jarvis on the roster, a move you decried. I almost missed it I was so busy "bleating my disapproval." Ahem.

One thing I did notice: seven out of 24 Mariners in the majors were acquired by Bill Bavasi. That's almost a third of the team, and it doesn't count the castoff Jarvis. Even David Locke, the strident preppy, acknowledges todaythat the front office has put a real destructive stamp on this team. I know, I know, you don't read the competition.

Steve, seriously. If you don't think Bavasi has already ably demonstrated inability, you haven't been paying attention. We should discuss this over a night of Freddy Garcia-style partying. Or, if that's not your style, we could meet for coffee.

I'll bring a list of Bavasi's transactions. You bring some top-notch hair care tips.

Call me.

Jeff

2004-05-18T12:03:00.000-07:00

From Peter Gammons' latest chat:

John: (Cambridge, MA ): Is there any value to rumor that Kim and Damon will be traded from the Red Sox and in a deal in which Boston acquires both Carlos Beltran and Freddy Garcia? It seems that Damon thinks it to be a distinct possibility, since he sold his home and now rents in the Boston area.

Peter Gammons: The problem is Seattle is not goin to take on $14 million next year in Damon and Kim. Nobody but the Dodgers would take Kim right now. Makes no sense for the Royals to trade their best player and then have to lose Garcia because they can't sign him. The Red Sox have talked about Garcia, kind of put their names in the mix. Last year and this spring they floated the idea of a Beltran-Damon swap but the Royals had no interest. Great idea for the Red Sox though!

Contrast Peter's rather sane approach with Scott Engel's. Engel's writing from a fantasy baseball perspective, of course, but he says:

The Mariners have a dire need to pump life into a sagging offense, and Damon can give them the spark they need ... The three-way trade makes sense for all of the teams involved.

Look, I like Captain Caveman as much as the next guy. But he's only slightly better than Randy Winn and even more overpaid. Damon's OPS this year is .744, identical to Winn's career OPS. Yes, I'd rather have Damon, but not for $8 million.

Of course, he is on the wrong side of 30, so that part of the rumor makes sense.

I don't even know why Engel thinks shipping Kim to the M's makes sense, cause he doesn't explain. But I'd love to hear it! As usual, the USS Mariner guys called it first and best -- why not just trade Freddy for Beltran?

2004-05-18T11:11:00.000-07:00

In reaction to the recent news about Troy Glaus' surgery (he's injured? shocking!), I had two self-serving thoughts.

1. Looks like I got off the Glaus elevator at the right time when I traded him two weeks ago in my fantasy league, and

2. I bet Scott Spiezio just became a lot more attractive to the Angels.

If I were Bill Bavasi -- and I wake up every morning glad I'm not -- I'd make a call and see if Spiezio-for-Kotchman sounds interesting.

2004-05-18T08:55:00.000-07:00

Media notes: It had to happen eventually. The TV Critic writes something worthwhile.

One thing: Aren't Bill Bavasi and Scott Boras personal friends? Come on, Bill, here's a chance to make up for all the damage you've done. Go get us Carlos Beltran.

As if to reply to my "The M's have lost every local columnist" post, Larry Henry reminds me that he's around, and that the M's suck.

Poor Bucky Jacobsen. It looks like he's Jim Moore's new buddy. No good will come of this. Remember Jeff Cirillo, Bucky! Don't return his calls!

2004-05-17T07:18:00.000-07:00

Once is an accident, twice is a trend, three times is a Bavasi blunder: The New York media is apparently serious about this Freddy-Garcia-for-Dioner Navarro rumor, with the NY Post running Joel Sherman essentially re-typing the same story I linked yesterday and adding some "Tanyon Sturtze is no Athos, Porthos or Aramis" snaps.

Don't believe the sleazy Post? Don't blame you. Take it from Larry Stone instead, who proffers the rumor in his notebook column.

If this thing doesn't have legs yet, it's at least growing thighs, maybe even knees and shins.

Optimisometer: Mentioned this weekend how the M's are trying the patience of the media, the fans, The Optimist, and probably the Mariner Moose. Listening to the game yesterday, I got an indication of just how bad things have gotten, from the paragon of positivity himself, Dave Niehaus.

When Aurilia singled late in the game, there was no "And the Mariners will bring the tying run to the plate!" He just continued bantering with Ron Fairly about the Houston Colt .45s. It was as if he knew there was no shot.

And then, when Melvin signalled for the bunt again (again!) in the ninth, Dave actually called out the move as nonsensical. Sure, he decried it because of the old "don't-play-for-the-tie-on-the-road" canard, but he stopped just short of saying "Why would you give a Hall of Fame reliever a free out when he only needs to get three?"

Why is this significant? Through years and years of awful, miserable baseball, Dave Niehaus was able to put a happy face on things and sound convincing. If it's getting hard for him, well, Earl Weaver help us all.

Random sidenote: I play in one of those Sportsline fantasy leagues wher you can post polls. I posted the question "How many games will Bob Melvin's weird fascination with bunting every time someone gets on base cost the Mariners this year?"

So, far, "5-9" is ahead by three votes.

2004-05-16T08:22:00.000-07:00

Garcia watch: Apparently the Mariners are about ready to pull the plug, according to Ken Davidoff of Newsday. Evidently, Bavasi met with Brian "I should be the M's GM" Cashman yesterday.

Davidoff speculates that the Yankees could offer Dioner Navarro, their double-A catching prospect, as the centerpiece for a Garcia deal.

I've got to admit that intirgues me: the Mariners could use a real catcher, Navarro just turned 20 years old, and he had 42 long hits in just 110 games last year. This also seems like a risk, though, unless you've already decided that the season's lost, and that you're not going to pay Freddy.

[Here's The Hardball Times' top 50 prospects list, which puts Navarro at No. 18. Baseball Prospectus puts him at No. 30. By the way, Navarro's PECOTA card looks as crazy as you'd expect a 20-year-old prospect's to look. The comparisons are everywhere from Adrian Beltre and Wilson Betemit to Hank Blalock and Miguel Cabrera.]

Follow-up No. 1, Lyle Overbay: Larry Stone beats the Overbay drum. I'm opposed to this move not because I think Overbay's a bad player, but because I have no doubt we'll give up too much to get a commodity in high supply, a first baseman that can hit a bit.

Follow-up No. 2, Aaron Boone: I'm convinced we will end up with Boone. I'm equally convinced that it will be a disaster. This article says that the Mariners and the Dodgers are most interested in having Boone make outs for them.

2004-05-16T08:10:00.000-07:00

Stick a fork in the M's, writes Larry Stone in a pretty scathing column. I wish he'd said more about "visionless management" and less about "passion," but other than that, it's perfect.

Seattle has a deserving reputation as a town of homer sportswriters. I don't think Stone falls in that category, but check it: they've lost Steve Kelley, Art Thiel, and now Stone, who have all written high-profile "blow this team up" exhortations. The TV Critic wants to trade everyone for prospects; he doesn't know which ones, but dammit, he wants prospects. If Jim Moore ever writes about sports, I'm sure he'll agree.

I half expected Les Carpenter to interrupt his article about Squiggy with a "Fire Bob Melvin" rant.

In the space of less than two months, the house that Bavasi built has come tumbling down like a house of cards doused in gasoline and touched with a cigarette. They've alienated the media, many fans, and even the Mariner Optimist's posts are starting to feel ironic.

By my count, the only columnist not to blast the M's yet (other than Moore, who doesn't count) is Blaine Newnham. Don't let us down, Blaine.

2004-05-15T13:31:00.000-07:00

Having Joe Torre and Bob Melvin manage against each other is really a study in contrasts, isn't it? I mean, apart from the zeal with which Melvin gives away bunt outs, fails to think ahead in games ("If I bunt Ichiro over, I wonder if they'll walk Edgar to get at Spiezio and Cabrera"), and clings to baseball's imaginary "book" as if it were the conch in Lord of the Flies.

Case in point from this game today. One of Melvin's major deficiencies is his unwillingness to use our best relief pitcher a) in anything other than a save situation or b) for more than one inning. Eddie Guardado has been in 14 games; he's pitched 15 innings. As his game log shows, he's never pitched more than 1.1 innings, and he's done that only three times.

Compare that to the way Joe Torre uses Mariano Rivera. While he hasn't used Rivera for two innings as much this year, today shows that he's willing to do so if it gives his team the best shot at a win. Rivera's the best he's got, so even though the game's tied, he goes with him for two innings when a victory is on the line without hesitation.

I think J.J. Putz is a good pitcher, and I'm glad he's getting important innings. But if you're not going to use Guardado when Jason Giambi is up in the bottom of the ninth with the bases loaded, when are you going to use him? Is there a more important game situation than this? And Giambi's even left-handed!

As I write this, though, it's the 11th inning, and Julio Mateo's in. Guardado's been sitting ever since the top of the ninth. Maybe this will work out, maybe it won't. But if Mateo faces Giambi in the 12th, especially with Matsui in there after Sheffield, something's really wrong here strategically.

2004-05-15T13:30:00.000-07:00

Melvin's not going to have Winn bunt again, is he? Say it isn't so.

2004-05-15T12:27:00.000-07:00

Nope, it's 2003 Shiggy. Sorry I said anything.